Americans are flocking to the polls ahead of the official date of November 5. The early voting figures, in person or by mail, are the second highest in history, only behind those recorded in 2020, in the midst of the pandemic. There are already more than 66 million people who have participated in the elections, the equivalent of 43% of the total participation in the elections four years ago. The known data show inconclusive signals, beyond the fact that a high electoral turnout is expected, which, in turn, can complicate the scrutiny and delay the results, especially if the equality that the polls point to is confirmed.
Voters registered as Republicans lead early voting in person, a modality in which 35.7 million people have participated, while Democrats are ahead in voting by mail, where 30.9 of the 66.9 have been delivered. millions of ballots requested. The figures show that the participation of women, in principle more favorable to Harris, is higher, but also that Republicans are more mobilized than four years ago.
In New York, in Virginia, in North Carolina, in Georgia, in Missouri, in Montana… Throughout the country, long lines at polling stations are a frequent sight in recent days. Each state has its own rules for voting before the official date and also disseminates different information about who is participating. Nowhere does the counting begin before the election date, so there are no partial results, but there are some surveys and data that, indirectly, allow us to appreciate some trends.
Of the 50 states, only 26 disclose voters’ party affiliation. For now, voters registered as Democrats have 12.9 million votes (38.7%), while Republicans have 12 million (36.0%) and independents, 8.5 million (25.4%). , according to data from the electoral laboratory at the University of Florida. This difference of less than two points contrasts with the nearly 20 points that Joe Biden’s supporters had compared to those of Donald Trump in 2020 in the early vote. However, the Republican campaign has gone from discouraging early voting, especially by mail – alleging unfounded suspicions of fraud – to enthusiastically encouraging it. Therefore, more than a political trend, these data can represent a change in habits. That, without ever forgetting that, even if a citizen is registered with one party or another, it is not possible to know who they vote for when the truth comes.
Republicans continue to prefer to vote in person, even when it comes to early voting and are ahead by seven points in that modality, in which there is affiliation data for 12 million people. The Democrats, meanwhile, have a nine-point advantage in voting by mail, which is more frequent among citizens, and for which there is data for now on the partisan affiliation of 20 million citizens.
The data indicates a higher participation of women, but only Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Virginia, Idaho and Colorado facilitate the distribution by sex. If the sample of those six states serves as a reference, it is good news for Kamala Harris, who leads the female vote. Of the nearly 15 million early votes registered in those States, 54% correspond to women; 44% are men, and 2% are unidentified.
Voters registered as Republicans are especially mobilized in several of the states considered decisive in the presidential elections. They are ahead in Arizona (41%-33%), in Nevada (39%-34%) and in North Carolina (34%-33%), where Democrats led early voting in 2020. In addition, they have cut a lot the difference in Pennsylvania, where all early voting is by mail. The Democrats have an advantage there of 57% to 33%, almost double, but in 2020 they had around three times as many votes by mail. Again, that seems to indicate more of a change in habits than anything else. In Georgia, Michigan and Wisconsin there is no data on voter party affiliation.
The most recent polls also try to shed some light on what is happening by asking those who have already voted. Polls among those who have already cast their ballot show an advantage for Harris that is smaller than Biden’s in the 2020 elections, but larger than Hillary Clinton’s in the 2016 elections. Again, the distortion introduced by the pandemic, and by The change in message by Trump and the Republicans prevents reaching clear conclusions.
Meanwhile, general surveys do not clear up the mystery either. Harris appears to be slightly ahead in the popular vote, but the battle remains in the air in the decisive states. Trump has slight leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona, while Harris appears somewhat ahead in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If each of those States sign up (which is by no means guaranteed), everything would depend on Pennsylvania, regardless of what happens in Nevada. And in Pennsylvania the situation is very even, although the Republican seems to have a very slight advantage of 0.3 to 0.5 points, according to the FiveThirtyEight and 270towin aggregators.
The two candidates are immersed in a marathon tour of the decisive states in the final days of the campaign. Kamala Harris will do double duty this Saturday with rallies in Atlanta (Georgia) and Charlotte (North Carolina). Sunday will be dedicated to campaigning in Michigan, to focus on the last day, precisely in Pennsylvania, the most decisive of the decisive states. There he will give three rallies on Monday: the first, in Allentown, in search of the Latino vote; the second, in Pittsburgh, the industrial capital of Pennsylvania, in search of the worker vote, and the third, the final touch in Philadelphia, the main city of the State.
For his part, Donald Trump’s agenda is even more intense. On Saturday he will hold two rallies in North Carolina (in Charlotte and Greensboro) and one in Virginia (in Salem), although the latter will theoretically be in a Democratic state. On Sunday he will hold another rally in North Carolina and one in the city of Macon (Georgia). On Monday, the last day of the campaign, he will start again in North Carolina, in Raleigh, to continue with an event in Reading (Pennsylvania), also in search of the Latino vote, another in Pittsburgh (almost simultaneous to Harris’s), to close his campaign in Grand Rapids (Michigan) that night.
