It was an occasion for high politics. The spectacular reopening ceremony of the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris brought together some of the main world leaders, eager not to miss one of the great events of the year. Donald Trump was in his element. Immediately before the celebration, he met with the heads of state of France, Emmanuel Macron, and Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, to discuss, above all, the future of the war in Ukraine. Later, already in the cathedral, he chatted with the Polish president, Andrzej Duda; He shook hands with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, smiled at the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. He was the great protagonist, the man whom everyone wanted to greet. In the background was the official representative of the White House, the first lady, Jill Biden. Her husband, President Joe Biden, had been invited but chose to remain in Washington.
There are still six weeks until his inauguration, on January 20, and the American president-elect is already behaving increasingly as if he were in power, especially on the international stage. From Paris, he ruled out on social networks that the United States was going to participate in the events in Syria. “The US should not be involved in this. It is not our fight. Let’s let it resolve itself, let’s not get involved!”
So far he has also demanded that the radical Palestinian group Hamas release the Israeli hostages in Gaza before his swearing-in or “they will pay a very high price.” He has dispatched his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, for talks with Israel and Qatar on Gaza: “We have received a lot of encouragement from the incoming Administration to reach an agreement before the president even takes office,” the prime minister declared on Saturday. Qatari, Mohamed Bin Abdelrahman al Thani. He has threatened the BRICS countries against the plans, still very vague, to create a common currency that attempts to rival the dollar. And he has announced that he will block the purchase plans of the American steel company US Steel by the Japanese company Nippon Steel.
His announcement that he would impose tariffs of 25% against Mexico and Canada and 10% on China for fentanyl trafficking triggered a call from Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and a whirlwind visit from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to the residence. in Trump’s Florida, Mar-a-Lago. Meanwhile, his Democratic predecessor is increasingly taking a backseat.
only one president
Tradition, the Constitution and the positions of each outgoing Administration in the United States repeat the same thing in each transition of power in the country: that there is always a single president responsible for making decisions. Before the inauguration, any elected president has to limit himself, at least in theory, to preparing his arrival and putting together his government team.
But, since his clear electoral victory, the Republican already acts as if he were in office. His statements, his appointments and the headlines he has grabbed have left in the shadows the management in recent weeks of a Biden in a more than evident political and physical decline. The visit of the still tenant of the White House to Angola, his first and last visit to Africa, went almost completely unnoticed this week, most of the attention towards him focused on the pardon for his son Hunter. The same thing had happened ten days earlier, during his attendance at the APEC summits in Peru and the G-20 in Brazil: in Rio de Janeiro, Biden’s absence in the official photo, to which he arrived late, was all an image of your participation.
Trump, meanwhile, announced his visit to Paris; intervened by surprise at the presentation of the club World Cup that will be held in his country in 2025, in an event in which the president of FIFA, Gianni Infantino, already introduced him as the “president of the USA”, without the adjective of “elect”.
Even his transition team was beginning to brag about “promises kept.” In a press release this week, he boasted that a month and a half after the inauguration, Trump is already “securing our border” with his threats to Mexico and Canada over fentanyl and irregular immigration, and “both countries already “They committed to taking immediate measures.” He also blames the president-elect for Iran’s failure to respond to Israel’s attack on its territory in October, and maintains that thanks to him “negotiations to end the war in Gaza and Russia’s war in Ukraine have accelerated.”
Given the extensive and complex nature of the presidential transition processes in the United States, it is not unusual for an elected leader to speak out about his projects once he begins to exercise, or begins to take an interest in the issues he is going to inherit: Dwight Eisenhower traveled to Korea before his inauguration in 1953 to see with his own eyes if that war (1950-1953) could be won.
And it is usual for the outgoing Administration to keep its successors informed, in greater or lesser detail, of its steps in international hot spots, or even ask for their collaboration: given the outbreak of the financial crisis at the end of 2008, the George W. Bush’s administration tried to persuade Barack Obama to use his influence as a senator to help pass an asset protection law; the then president-elect declined. There have also been serious exceptions: the Eisenhower Government failed to inform the fledgling John F. Kennedy of the existence of a plan to invade Cuba, which would end up being the Bay of Pigs attempt.
But Trump’s dominant behavior during the transition is unusual, says Barbara Perry, co-director of the Presidential Oral History program at the University of Virginia. “Norms and traditions exist for a reason,” he adds. “The Supreme Court determined in 1936 that the intent of the Constitution, and the founders of the nation who wrote it, was for the country to speak with one voice on foreign policy, and for that voice to be the president,” he explains.
One of the reasons to avoid interference by an elected president is the risk that his actions trigger some kind of harmful consequence, which would open a whole series of questions about his responsibility. “If, for example, as a result of the threats it has made against Hamas, this group decided to execute the hostages that are still alive, who do we hold responsible?” he clarifies.
In part, the situation is generated by Trump’s dominant personality and the fact that he has already been president for four years (2017-2021). “His voters elected him to be the elephant in the china shop, so they like that he’s behaving that way,” Perry says. And in part, it is also due to Biden’s own physical and political weakness.
“There is a perception of a void among Americans because of the physical and mental decline of Joe Biden, the defeat of his replacement Kamala Harris and even now the pardon of Hunter Biden. “Donald Trump is filling that void,” considers the expert.
The Biden Administration has not commented on the incoming president’s behavior. Some of Trump’s interventions have helped resolve problems: His meeting with Ron Dermer, one of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s advisers, helped achieve the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon. The White House has simply reiterated again and again its willingness to cooperate so that the transfer of power is as effective as possible. “The president has been consistent that he wants all of us in the Administration to do everything we can to facilitate a professional and orderly transition, and we urge the incoming team to take the necessary steps to enable that from their side as well,” declared National Security Council spokesman John Kirby last week.
The moment of truth for Trump will come on January 20, when the “elephant in the china shop” to which Professor Perry alludes will be completely free to implement his promises to turn the system upside down. Then it will be seen to what extent he wants, or can, comply with them.
At the moment, the same system that he wants to dynamite has already sent some signal that it will not be so easy for him to destroy it: his original selection for the Department of Justice, Congressman Matt Gaetz, had to resign in the face of resistance from deputies and amid rumors of alleged sexual relations with minors. His nominee to head the Department of Defense, Fox host Pete Hegseth, is fighting to save his candidacy amid allegations of drinking problems and sexual abuse.
These are problems that may continue in the future, given the narrow margin that Republicans have on Capitol Hill: in the Senate, 53 to 47. In the House of Representatives it is even smaller: 220 seats to 215. “Their majority in Congress is very small. It is not clear that Republicans will be able to maintain their party discipline in support of the president,” said Jay Rosengard, professor of Public Policy at Harvard University, in a video conference this Thursday.
