Donald Trump has managed to impose a completely new issue on the international agenda, and all this in the blink of an eye, before even officially taking office. He will not simply be a reactionary president, but also an expansionist president.
The United States will not invade Panama, Canada, or Greenland. These territories are not, to the United States, what Ukraine is to Russia or Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China. The priority of Trump and his electorate is on what happens to the south, that is, on the border with Mexico, not in the north. Although Panama is part of Central America, US interests are not in danger there. Canadians, for their part, have no interest in becoming Americans. As for Greenland, the situation is more complex and interesting. This territory has a particular history with the United States. De facto, it is already part of the North American defense zone, with American military bases established there, and no one in Copenhagen or Nuuk seems willing to vacate them.
However, the issue of the possible “purchase” of this territory was mentioned by Trump during his first term. However, this scenario seems unlikely. We are no longer in a time when great powers bought and sold colonies among themselves. However, Trump probably knows that the question of Greenland’s independence could arise in the coming months, with a referendum planned for April as part of local elections. Perhaps he is seeking to position himself for a possible decision, as suggested by his son’s recent visit to the territory.
What Trump is trying, as always, is to create an imbalance of power with the countries involved, seeking to intimidate them to obtain concessions. Those who know his style know that, for him, a good negotiation begins with the humiliation of his opponent.
Trump seeks to maximize trade benefits with Canada, make the most of Greenland’s mineral resources and counter China’s influence. Chinese companies are present near the Panama Canal and show growing interest in the riches of the Arctic.
Could Trump’s words encourage Moscow and Beijing in their own expansionist aspirations? It is unlikely, and its impact would be marginal. Russian and Chinese leaders do not wait for approval from US authorities to invade their neighbors. Furthermore, they know how to read a map: if the US borders extend northward, that would mean a US closer to them, with greater influence over the Arctic, a crucial strategic point and object of covet in the 21st century.
However, Trump’s words have an effective impact and may have detrimental consequences for transatlantic solidarity. Any weakening of NATO benefits Russia. And, at a time when there is increasing discussion about a possible ceasefire negotiation, Moscow must be pleased to hear an American president without hesitation raise the possibility of acquiring neighboring territories by force.
It is time for Europeans to react firmly to Trump’s statements. We must make clear that we will continue to defend the principles of the liberal order that the United States may be willing to abandon. Firstly, the inadmissibility of acquiring territories by force, and the inalienable nature of our sovereignty, including that of Greenland. It is true that this territory is not formally part of the European Union. However, the Treaty of Lisbon includes an article that obliges member countries to defend each other in the event of armed aggression, and this principle applies “to the territories of the Member States.” Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. Does Trump want Europeans to fend for themselves? It is an opportunity to show that we are prepared to do it.
In short, the message must be clear: sovereignist, sovereignist and a half.
