Urban and rural voters in Wisconsin, service workers in Las Vegas, Arizona, Latinos in Arizona, African-American communities in Georgia, Arab-Americans in Michigan, women in suburban Charlotte, North Carolina, and nearly every inhabitant of Pennsylvania hold the keys to the White House. Citizens across the United States are called to elect a president on November 5, but the outcome will depend on tens or hundreds of thousands of votes in a handful of key states.
A total of 158.6 million Americans went to the polls in 2020. Joe Biden won by more than seven million votes. However, it would have been enough for just 22,000 people spread across three states (Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin) to vote for Donald Trump instead of Biden for the Republican to remain in the White House.
With that precedent – and that of 2016, when Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in three states by 80,000 votes made the Democrat’s triumph in the popular vote in the country useless – the campaigns of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are battling to scrape together votes in the seven states that will decide who makes history after November 5: the first woman to occupy the Oval Office or the first president to regain the presidency after losing it since Grover Cleveland in 1892.
The Electoral College is made up of 538 electors, delegates, or representatives representing the states. Each state has the equivalent of its number of congressmen (counting senators, always two per state; and representatives, from 1 to 52, depending on the population). To this are added three votes for the capital, the District of Columbia (DC). With minimal exceptions, the candidate who wins in a state takes all of its electoral votes, regardless of whether he wins by one vote or by a million. The states with the strongest Electoral College are California (54), Texas (40), Florida (30), and New York (28). There are several, however, that only have three votes: Alaska, Wyoming, the two Dakotas, Delaware, Vermont, and the aforementioned DC.
In many states, armed with precedents and polls, there is no doubt who will win. Harris has practically pocketed 226 Electoral College votes (181 assured, 44 probable, and one likely), while Trump can count on 219 (125 assured and 94 probable). 270 are needed to win. The battle is in the other 93, spread across seven states where approximately 15% of a population of 335 million people live.
The distribution leaves room for multiple combinations. The one that carries the most weight is Pennsylvania (19 votes), followed by Georgia (16) and North Carolina (16), Michigan (15), Arizona (11), Wisconsin (10) and Nevada (6). In 2016, Trump won all but Nevada; in 2020, Biden won all but North Carolina.
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The difference is so narrow in these territories that they change sides with small variations and can turn the election around. They are known as swing states. (swing states). Trump would only need to retain North Carolina, as well as reconquer Georgia and Pennsylvania to win, which is why he is putting all his cards on the table there. His strategy clashes in Pennsylvania with that of the Democrats, who have dubbed it the Blue Wall Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that would be enough for Harris to win the presidency. These are three states that Obama won in 2008 and 2012; Trump in 2016; and Biden in 2020, the only ones that have had four consecutive elections in which whoever wins there ends up in the White House.
Polls, bets and predictions vary as to who will win in the key states. The gaps are narrow, according to the polls. FiveThirtyEight, which aggregates the main ones, gives Harris the advantage in Wisconsin (2.8 points), Michigan (1.7 points), Pennsylvania (0.7), Nevada (0.2) and, very recently, also in North Carolina (0.2). Trump, on the other hand, would be ahead in Arizona (0.7) and Georgia (0.6). The gaps are very narrow.
Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, gives the Democrat a probability (in this case, not voting intention) of around 60% of winning in Wisconsin and Michigan, while it gives the Republican victory in Georgia, Arizona and South Carolina, also with around 60%-40%. Nevada (irrelevant in this scenario) and Pennsylvania, which would tip the balance, would be a toss-up.
Metaculus, a community of experts, gives Harris a 64% chance of winning Wisconsin, 60% in Michigan and 55% in Pennsylvania. In contrast, it assigns a 60% chance to Trump winning North Carolina and leaves Georgia, Arizona and Nevada practically tied.
Until the elections, Morning Express will take a tour of these decisive territories. The series begins in Pennsylvania, which has the most electoral weight and is included in many of the winning combinations. Winning it is a big step, but not definitive. Both Harris and — especially — Trump have several options for victory without Pennsylvania.
In addition to the seven states, the series also includes the district of Omaha, Nebraska, which provides a vote that is leaning towards the Democrats, but less secure. Retaining it could end up being decisive in avoiding a tie at 269 electoral votes. If that were to happen – and there are several combinations for this – the president would be elected by the House of Representatives and the vice president by the Senate. Republicans Donald Trump and JD Vance would be the favourites.
