Inflation concerns increase the uncertainties about how the central banks of developed countries will shape their monetary policies with the latest data, and also cause pressure on the markets.
A similar outlook emerged on the European side after the annual inflation in the USA settled above 5 percent and the US Federal Reserve directed that it may start to reduce its bond purchases this year.
According to the data released yesterday, annual inflation in the Eurozone rose to 3 percent, the highest level since November 2011. After the data, the statements of European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council Member Klaas Knot showed that the ECB’s bond purchase program could be opened to discussion.
As a result of the aforementioned developments, the US and European stock markets showed a limited selling trend yesterday, while a positive outlook is displayed in the Asian markets today.
According to the data announced yesterday in the USA, consumer confidence fell to the lowest level in 6 months due to the new type of coronavirus (Covid-19) epidemic and inflation concerns. The S&P Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 18.6 percent in June compared to the same period last year, breaking a record.
Following the data, the Dow Jones index fell 0.11 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 0.13 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 0.04 percent.
European stock markets ended the day with a decline after the inflation data exceeding expectations and Knot’s statements. The FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.4 percent in the UK, the DAX 30 index decreased by 0.33 percent in Germany and the CAC 40 index decreased by 0.11 percent in France. Euro/dollar parity, on the other hand, could not hold at this level even though it rose to the limit of 1.1850 yesterday and was balanced just below 1.18.
The second quarter growth data announced in Australia today exceeded expectations with 9.6 percent annually. In China, the Manufacturing Industry Purchasing Managers Index fell to 49.2, well below the estimates and pointing to a contraction in the economy.
Despite the aforementioned developments, Asian stock markets followed a buying course, while the price of gold was just above the previous close at $1,813 per ounce, and the price of Brent oil per barrel was trading at $71.9 with an increase of 0.6 percent.
The Nikkei 225 index gained 1.1 percent in Japan, the Shanghai composite index gained 0.6 percent in China and the Kospi index in South Korea gained 0.2 percent.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, which continued its buyers yesterday, gained 0.95 percent and closed the highest in 5 months with 1,472.07 points. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, closed the day at 8.3166 with a decrease of 0.8 percent compared to the previous close, after seeing its lowest level since June 11 with 8.2935 yesterday.
In the report of the international credit rating agency Moody’s, which was published after the domestic markets closed yesterday, the 2021 growth forecast for the Turkish economy was increased from 5 percent to 6 percent. In the report, it was stated that the G20 economies, which contracted by 3.2 percent last year, are expected to grow by 6.2 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022.
Analysts stated that the search for direction continues after mixed signals from macroeconomic data and increasing uncertainties in global stock markets, and said that money inflow and positive divergence attracted attention due to relatively cheap pricing in Borsa Istanbul.
Analysts stated that today, in addition to the second quarter growth data in the country, the manufacturing industry PMI to be announced worldwide and the ADP private sector employment data in the USA are in the focus of the investors, the analysts also stated that the news from the meeting of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey with investors and economists will be followed today.
Analysts noted that technically, if the BIST 100 index is maintained above the 1.470 level, 1.490 points are in the position of resistance, and in the downward movements, 1.440 points are in the support position.
Economists participating in the survey conducted by AA Finans expect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to increase by 21.8 percent in the second quarter. The average of economists’ growth expectations for 2021 was 8.1 percent. The Turkish economy grew by 7 percent in the first quarter of 2021.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, August manufacturing PMI
10.00 Turkey, 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product
10.55 Germany, august manufacturing PMI
11.00 Eurozone, august manufacturing PMI
11.30 UK, august manufacturing PMI
15.15 USA, august ADP private sector employment
16.45 US, august manufacturing PMI
17.00 US, august ISM manufacturing PMI
. (HAS) is published on the Anadolu Agency website, in summary. ..