Difficult situation for peace talks to resolve the Ukraine conflict

On December 19 (Moscow time), President Putin gave his annual press interview. During the interview lasting more than 4 hours, the Ukraine conflict became a topic mentioned quite a lot.

From conditions for Ukraine

Specifically, Mr. Putin still emphasized Russia’s “success” in the Ukraine conflict. He explained that before launching the military campaign against Ukraine in February 2022, Russia was in danger of losing its independence, but now this problem has been resolved.

However, Mr. Putin said he is ready to meet US President-elect Donald Trump to discuss a number of issues, including peace negotiations with Ukraine. However, the Kremlin owner emphasized that he did not accept any of Kyiv’s preconditions for sitting at the negotiating table. For a long time, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky set a prerequisite for negotiations that Moscow returned occupied Ukrainian lands.

Only on November 29, in an interview on Sky News, President Zelensky said that if he could join NATO, allowing this alliance to protect the lands that Ukraine still holds, then Kyiv could achieve agreed to a ceasefire agreement. This is considered that Kyiv has agreed to waive the preconditions before entering into negotiations, opening up the opportunity for both sides to negotiate peace.

However, in the above interview, Mr. Putin set a new condition for a negotiating agreement if reached. Specifically, he emphasized that Russia only signed agreements with a “legitimate government” of Ukraine. This condition implies that Moscow does not recognize President Zelensky’s government. In fact, President Zelensky’s term should have ended, but he delayed holding elections citing the ongoing conflict. Therefore, the conditions set by the Kremlin owner can be understood as Ukraine must hold elections and Russia accepts the election results as “valid”.

Thus, the process of reaching a ceasefire agreement may still be difficult even when Moscow and Kyiv sit at the negotiating table.

Come challenge the West

Also in the above interview, President Putin mentioned the hypersonic medium-range ballistic missile (IRBM) Oreshnik and said that the West does not have the strength to intercept this type of IRBM. The Oreshnik missile has a range of 3,000 – 5,500 km, a speed of Mach 10 (10 times the speed of sound) and can carry a nuclear warhead.

“The West can set a target, say in Kyiv, then concentrate the entire air defense system there. We will launch Oreshnik at it to see what the results are,” Mr. Putin proposed.

At the end of November 2024, after receiving permission from the US to use long-range weapons provided by Washington to attack Russian territory, Kyiv launched many ATACMS missiles aimed at Russia. But then Moscow responded by launching Oreshnik to attack Ukraine. That was the first time Russia used hypersonic IRBMs to attack Ukraine since the outbreak of the Ukrainian conflict.

Reply Adolescentevaluating Russia’s move, a US military intelligence expert said: “This is Moscow’s escalating response in response to Kyiv’s long-range attack deep into Russia. It is like a warship opening fire on Russia.” on the bow of the enemy ship as a warning. It is a warning that the enemy must not repeat any similar actions, otherwise the next shot may cause greater damage.” Because the Oreshnik missile can carry a nuclear warhead, Russia’s launch of this missile also carries the implication of a nuclear attack.

Further, Moscow’s move also aims to deter NATO members in the region.