Donald Trump is not only competing to return to the White House and regain power in the presidential elections on November 5. It is possible that what is at stake for him is to avoid going to jail for the dozens of crimes that a special prosecutor appointed by the Department of Justice accuses him of in two different cases. Both cases seemed to be in limbo. The one regarding the classified papers from Mar-a-Lago due to the surprising decision of the judge to shelve it; the one regarding electoral interference in Washington, due to the ruling on presidential immunity by the Supreme Court. Both have reappeared this week just over two months before the elections. Together with the pending ruling in the New York case and the investigation of the Atlanta case, they could mark the final stretch of the electoral campaign, although their impact is uncertain.
A few decades ago, a criminal charge like the ones against Trump would have ended the career of any politician. No president or former president had been indicted by a grand jury until the Republican, who has been indicted in four different cases for dozens of crimes. A jury found Trump guilty of 34 crimes for falsifying invoices, checks and accounting records to hide payments to porn actress Stormy Daniels—so that she would remain silent and not harm her electoral chances in the 2016 presidential election. In addition, other juries have found him guilty of fraud, sexual abuse and defamation in civil cases. Despite this history, Trump masterfully manages his communication skills, his lies and his propaganda networks to present himself as a martyr, a victim of political persecution.
That is the script that has been followed this week. Two cases that seemed to be on hold are back in the spotlight, although neither of them will go to trial before the November 5 elections. Federal Judge Aileen Cannon, appointed by Trump himself, decided in July to surprisingly dismiss the Mar-a-Lago papers case on the grounds that the appointment of the special prosecutor, Jack Smith, was illegal because he had not been appointed by the president (the attorney general did) nor had he been ratified by the Senate. Trump welcomed the judge’s decision, which broke with all precedents in this regard. However, Smith filed an appeal on Monday with the Court of Appeals for the eleventh circuit or judicial division, which has already dealt several legal blows to the judge for her decisions in favor of Trump. The case, therefore, is still alive and kicking.
The other case that had been left hanging is that of the same prosecutor before a Washington DC court in which Trump is accused of his attempts to alter the result of the 2020 election, which he lost to Joe Biden. The trial was scheduled for early March, but the former president’s lawyers appealed again and again, claiming presidential immunity. The Supreme Court, with a conservative majority, granted him broad immunity for acts carried out in the exercise of his office, rendering part of the initial indictment a dead letter, but leaving the lower courts to continue with the case and draw the line.
The prosecutor has obtained a new indictment voted by another grand jury that considers that it fits the new doctrine and that maintains the accusation for the four crimes of the previous one. In it, he leaves out those acts that, in his opinion, are protected by the Supreme Court’s ruling, mainly his interactions with the Department of Justice, and presents as private acts of a candidate the pressures on authorities to alter the result. Trump and his lawyers believe that the new accusation continues to violate his immunity. Judge Tanya Chutkan, appointed by Barack Obama, will have to decide, at least in the first instance.
Awaiting sentencing
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The same Supreme Court ruling on immunity led Judge Juan Merchan to postpone sentencing in the Stormy Daniels case, which was initially scheduled for July 10. The judge postponed it until September 18 to give the parties time to argue whether the high court’s ruling affected their case or not and to make a decision, which is scheduled for September 16. Trump’s lawyers asked the judge last week to postpone sentencing until after the election. In theory, Merchan’s decision could put Trump behind bars for years, although the most common case is for him to be released on parole.
Trump’s preference for a delayed sentencing is a sign that he believes it could hurt him electorally, although the effect on voters is not entirely clear. The former president fell somewhat in the polls after being found guilty in late May, but has frequently used his legal troubles to mobilize his supporters and win donations for his campaign. Following the special counsel’s decisions, Trump has insisted without foundation that it is a “witch hunt.” He has said that Washington’s accusation is “ridiculous” and should be dismissed immediately and that it is all an attempt to “interfere in the election.”
Curiously, the Democratic campaign, which is usually very aggressive against Trump, has remained silent on Smith’s latest decisions. During last week’s convention in Chicago, several party leaders drew a contrast between prosecutor Kamala Harris and convicted criminal Donald Trump. It is a comparison that many in the party expect to emerge in the debate on September 10. However, the Democrats have not touched on the wound this week, perhaps afraid of giving credibility to the Trumpist thesis of political persecution.
This week’s rallies will serve as a gauge of how the candidates approach the issue. Harris is campaigning by bus through Georgia, one of the key swing states, with her vice presidential candidate, Tim Walz, and will hold a rally in Savannah on Thursday. Trump has a rally scheduled in La Crosse, Wisconsin, on Thursday and another in Johnstown, Pennsylvania, on Friday, in two other key swing states.
Harris has also finally given her first interview since President Joe Biden withdrew and made way for her as a candidate more than a month ago, in which the question of Trump’s accusations may also come up. It will be broadcast on CNN this Thursday at 9:00 p.m. Eastern Time in the United States, 3:00 a.m. Friday in mainland Spain, with the peculiarity that Harris gives it accompanied by Tim Walz.
Republican vice presidential candidate JD Vance mocked that on Wednesday, saying it was like a teenager bringing his mother or father to his first job interview. “That’s kind of the feeling,” Vance said on WISN-AM, a conservative radio station in Wisconsin, according to AP. “Kamala Harris is a little bit too nervous, a little bit too anxious, about this interview. So she’s going to bring Tim Walz along to help her out and make sure that if she gets into a mess, he can bail her out.”
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