The second round of the French elections brought back the spirit of 2016, when the traumatic events of Brexit and the Trump presidency took place. Now, as then, the polls failed, but the result is quite different: the match point was saved, the match pointThe French have fallen on the Republican side. According to projections, not only will the National Rally (RN) not have a majority, but it has not even been the party with the most votes, as all the polls predicted. Le Pen has fallen and Macron has achieved his objective of putting the RN in its place. When it seemed a long shot, he has achieved a certain rehabilitation with his second place behind the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP). The fickle president did manage to mobilise his citizens in the end, even if he did not win. The French are not willing to take the risk of entrusting their country to an ultra-right adventure. And that is no small feat. The cordon sanitaire has been maintained, and with a historic turnout. The psychodrama staged by the Elysée has had a happy ending.
Against this background, the most immediate question is what now? How will governability be achieved? Because none of the groups has a sufficient majority to do so. The logical thing is for Macron to propose as prime minister a candidate from the group with the most votes, but it will have to be someone agreed upon by Ensemble (Together), the president’s party. And from here on, the unknowns begin, and it will depend on what the balance of power between the two parties involved ends up being. I think there are two options: one is a coalition government between NFN and Ensemble, which could be extended to other groups, the “pluralistic coalition” that Prime Minister Attal spoke of until Sunday. In France, as until very recently in Spain, there is no political culture in favour of this outcome, but it would be the closest to what the voters have expressed. Another possibility would be a single-colour government of the left and the green based on an agreed programme and led by a moderate leader, a socialist. In both cases, cohabitation between the president and a left-wing prime minister would be inevitable, something that Macron certainly did not expect. But, look, the dissonances between the programmes of the two are abysmal, and I do not think Mélenchon – and Macron himself – are willing to make many concessions.
After the fear we have been through, I think it is relevant to ask ourselves other questions. What the hell is going on in democracies that makes us feel like we are always on the edge of the abyss every time there is an election? Is it not a contradiction in terms for a democracy to fear the will of the voters? Have we stopped believing in the institutional controls that protect it from potential majority excesses? The only thing that is certain, to return to France, is that if the result of the cordon sanitaire does not serve to guarantee governability, the field will have been cleared for Le Pen to end up winning next time. The call for the responsibility of the voters cannot be met with irresponsible politicians.
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