The Chinese Communist Party conclave issued its verdict on Thursday on the country’s course for the next decade: reform, reform and more reform. The so-called third plenary session of the Central Committee, a body that brings together China’s nearly 370 top leaders, clings to this concept —with echoes of the Deng Xiaoping era at the head of the country— as a guide in the face of a turbulent and changing world within and outside its borders. The party considers that the priority objective of this reformist path is to achieve “high-quality development” —a concept that Beijing uses to talk about the change from a model of cheap manufacturing to one guided by innovation, perhaps the greatest obsession of President Xi Jinping in recent years—; and calls for measures to continue developing “new productive forces,” that is, those linked to the technological sectors, according to the statement on the plenary session, published by the official Xinhua agency.
Reform in China, however, should not be understood in the Western style. The leaders of the communist power consider that current times require an even greater presence of the Party in all areas and demand that the entire country unite “more closely around the Central Committee of the Party, with Comrade Xi Jinping at its center,” the text emphasizes. The document also recognizes “risks” that threaten key areas of the economy, such as the real estate sector, in critical condition, the debt of local governments, and the state of medium and small financial institutions. It calls for expanding domestic demand—another of the points that hinder its growth—and warns of the need to maintain “national security” and “social stability” on that path.
The four-day meeting, held behind closed doors in Beijing, concluded on Thursday with the approval of a work report prepared by the country’s president and general secretary of the Party that governs the lives of 1.4 billion people. “In the face of the complex international and domestic situation, the new round of scientific and technological revolution and industrial transformation, and the new expectations of the people, we must consciously put reform in a more prominent position and continue to comprehensively deepen reform around promoting modernization in the Chinese style,” said the statement, a sort of summary of the official report, a lengthy document that usually takes a few days to be published. This report is of the utmost importance. It touches on all areas, from the tax system to defense, from the promotion of culture to environmental protection. Some analysts equate it with a five-year plan – the next one is drawn up in 2025 – and it must now serve as a basis for putting the gigantic machinery of the State into operation. Its relevance can often only be estimated a few years later.
The statement, published as an advance, cites the word 53 times Gaige(reform in Chinese), and gives quite a few clues about that direction, which at first glance does not seem to deviate from the one taken progressively since 2012, with the arrival to power of Xi Jinping. The goal is to reach 2035 having established a “high-level socialist market economic system” and with a “modernization” that serves as a base to build a “modern socialist power” in 2049, the date on which 100 years of the proclamation of the People’s Republic by Mao Zedong will be celebrated.
The text published by Xinhua can be read almost like a prologue to a law: it is full of good intentions and promises. It calls for improvements in the macroeconomic regulation system, in finance and taxation, and for a more coherent orientation of macroeconomic policy. It speaks of the need for China to remain open to the outside world, to “revitalize” the country through science and education, and of a growth strategy “driven by innovation.” It also shows that Beijing is aware of the immense social challenge it faces with the bursting of the real estate bubble (the housing sector has come to account for a quarter of GDP); it recognizes the importance of improving living conditions in the process of development underway, and calls for reform of the redistributive system, employment policy, the social security system, the medical and health system and support and services for the population.
It also recognizes that in the face of social challenges, it is necessary to strengthen control. The statement emphasizes that the Communist Party is above all, and that “comprehensive reform” and “Chinese-style modernization” are “inseparable from the firm leadership of the Party.” The text underlines eight times that the “leadership” of the party is essential to “promote” the modernization of the country and urges to continue with the process of “self-purification, self-improvement, self-renewal and self-perfection of the Party” with the aim of it remaining “the firm core of socialism with Chinese characteristics.”
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The plenary also decided to “accept the request for resignation” as a member of the Central Committee of former Foreign Minister Qin Gang, who has been missing for more than a year and whose situation remains an enigma. Qin, who held the post of foreign minister for only six months, had been considered a protégé of President Xi until his abrupt replacement in July 2023. His dismissal came after a month without news about his whereabouts, which Beijing justified by citing “health reasons”. In Thursday’s statement, he continues to be referred to as “comrade”.
More hostile is the language used by the Central Committee to announce the dismissal from the body of former Defense Minister Li Shangfu and former commander of the People’s Liberation Army missile force Li Yuchao, who are accused of “serious disciplinary violations” in a report by the Central Military Commission. Li Shangfu, as well as his predecessor in the post, Wei Fenghe, were accused of corruption and expelled from the Communist Party last month. Until then, Li Shangfu’s case had followed an almost identical script to that of Qin Gang: he disappeared in August last year, while still in charge of the portfolio, and was dismissed two months later on Xi’s orders. For his part, Li Yuchao (and his deputies) had also been away from the public scene for months before being replaced last August as head of the unit that controls the Asian power’s nuclear arsenal.
In what can be interpreted as a message to the Ministry of Defense, the statement emphasizes the “need to improve military leadership and its system of governance.” Under the anti-corruption crusade that Xi Jinping launched shortly after assuming his position as general secretary of the party 12 years ago, more than five million officials at all levels have been tried. This campaign has not only served to “clean up” the reputation of the party and “strengthen discipline,” but many analysts say it has also helped the president eliminate his political rivals.
For Max J. Zenglein, chief economist at the Berlin-based Merics Institute, any hint of “liberal” language in Thursday’s statement must be understood within the limits set by the party, “whose role is becoming increasingly stronger,” he said last week in a teleconference. “We need to see it in the context of how Xi Jinping thinks the economy should function. The need to strengthen market mechanisms and greater economic openness will be emphasized,” he added. “It could be interpreted in a very optimistic way and believe that China is continuing on the path of reform from the early 2000s. But that is not the case,” said this expert on the eve of the conclave.
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