The carousel of visits by top US officials to Beijing since June has not produced a feast of big deals; There have been no bombastic receptions, no military marches, no rhythmic walks to the sound of ancient instruments —as happened with the visit of the French president, Emmanuel Macron. It wasn’t what was expected either. The tangible results are rather scarce. But the four emissaries of the White House, who have landed in the Asian giant at a rate of almost two first swords per month, do seem to have achieved a change of humor in the geopolitical arena and the reset of links in a dangerous downward spiral.
If the first of these trips to China, that of the US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, succeeded in putting a footing in June on what he himself called “one of the relations [bilaterales] most important in the world”, the last level figure that has passed through the People’s Republic, the Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, assured on Wednesday that she was leaving the country with “some optimism”.
“This is the beginning of a new dialogue, this is the beginning of a new approach,” Raimondo said in an appearance in Shanghai after four days in two cities and half a dozen prominent meetings. They were not mere exchanges of views, according to his reading.
During their stay, both superpowers have pledged to launch various dialogue mechanisms to reduce risks and increase mutual understanding: a working group on trade issues, an information exchange mechanism on the application of export controls, the holding the 14th China-US Tourism Leadership Summit, and it was further agreed that technical experts from both countries meet to strengthen the protection of trade secrets. “An excellent beginning,” Raimondo reiterated after enumerating them before the press in a hangar at the joint ventureof the aeronautical giant Boeing in the People’s Republic.
The Secretary of Commerce had just visited the Disney park located in the financial megalopolis and referred to the smiles of the children she saw there; He also spoke of the more than 1,000 Starbucks coffee shops open in the city and of the young Chinese and Americans he had seen studying side by side at the New York University branch in the city, “challenging each other and having a dialogue and an open debate,” he said. “That’s all the business we should be doing,” she added. “We must encourage exchange between people and businesses.”
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As head of the Commerce Department, her visit was one of the most anticipated: China believes that the United States has embarked on an increasing strategy of “fence and suppression” of its development by imposing tariffs and restrictions on the export of critical technologies. Among the latest measures, just two weeks before Raimondo’s trip, US President Joe Biden announced new restrictions to limit his country’s investments in strategic technology areas in the Asian country. During his stay in China, several communist commanders demanded that he reduce these controls. “Of course, I said no,” Raimondo replied, according to what he told in an appearance. She assured them that Washington is not looking for a “decoupling” but to look after its own interests, and she underlined the red lines: “We do not negotiate on national security.”
For this reason, some analysts question whether there has been real progress and remain skeptical. “Preventing access to semiconductors and other advanced technologies that China so badly needs is, by far, the most damaging measure that Washington has taken against its economic interests,” the consultancy Trivium China assesses in a recent note. “The US refusal to relax such measures means there is little room for bilateral relations to improve” so “geopolitical risks will remain high for multinationals.”
Despite the fact that contact between high military commanders of the two superpowers in Fiji was resumed this week, which reduces the risk of clashes due to lack of communication, the daily Global Timesforceful voice of Beijing propaganda, assured on Friday in connection with Raimondo’s return home: “The US is not taking substantial steps to improve ties with China despite the climate of détente.”
Few in the Asian superpower had foreseen the “aggressiveness” of the Biden administration, says Mark Leonard, director of the European Institute of International Relations, in a recent article by foreign affairs. Some Chinese analysts today compare his actions to those of former President Donald Trump against Iran, Leonard adds. “A consensus has formed in Beijing that Washington’s objective is not for China to comply with the rules of the game; but to prevent China from growing.” The analysis concludes, it is “incorrect”: what Washington and the European Union seek is to ensure that their businesses do not share sensitive technologies with Beijing and reduce dependence on imports in strategic sectors. This is what Brussels has called derisking (risk reduction).
Shortly after Blinken’s visit, a Chinese businessman and member of the communist party who sees how business has not just taken off in China after the post-pandemic reopening, claimed on condition of anonymity less “derisking” and more “depoliticizing” (depoliticization) in relations between Beijing and the West. That’s what he said while toasting with French wine from a hotel overlooking Tiananmen Square in Beijing. “We need communication,” a government official from one of the main Chinese cities also asserted this summer.
Depoliticization
The Prime Minister, Li Qiang, spoke along the same lines last Tuesday during the interview with Raimondo: “Politicizing economic and commercial issues and exaggerating the concept of security […] It will undermine the interests of companies and the people of the two countries,” Li told him, according to the official reading provided by Xinhua. But Beijing, he told him, was willing to “strengthen dialogue and cooperation” on trade and the economy.
After a summer of black news for China in these fields (negative prices, low consumption, falling exports, youth unemployment), the Government has begun to take shock measures to try to reactivate the locomotive. Among them is the constant call for foreign investment. The People’s Republic urgently seeks to reduce mistrust among multinationals. But the atmosphere is not positive, quite the opposite.
Many Western companies consider that the Asian giant has become a destination where “not to invest”, as several American businessmen told Raimondo before his visit. To the old problems of access to the Chinese market, of intellectual property, of trade secrets and of an uneven playing field, is now added a growing concern about an unpredictable regulatory environment, a reinforced anti-espionage law, in addition to the raids and fines that have suffered some US companies in surprising ways in recent months.
The mechanisms agreed upon during Raimondo’s stay also seek to reassure concerned businessmen in his country. The senior official was satisfied with having launched these active channels of communication to avoid risks due to misunderstandings. “I don’t want to go back to the times of dialogue for dialogue’s sake”, she settled during the appearance at Boeing’s headquarters in Shanghai.
After the frenzy of visits, now it’s time to wait for the leaders of both countries to meet again and propose new objectives. In their last meeting, last November during the G-20 summit in Bali (Indonesia), Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden achieved a timid thaw whose results have been permeating during the visits of senior US officials in recent months. So, they were summoned not to enter a new cold war.
The next G-20 summit, which starts in India this Saturday, will not, however, be the scene of a new face to face between the heads of the two largest planetary powers. Xi “probably” will not attend the meeting held in a country with which China has serious disputes, according to exclusive information from the Reuters agency, not yet confirmed by Beijing. Various analysts point out in any case that the next meeting between Biden and Xi could take place in November during the annual meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Forum held in San Francisco.
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