China and North Korea’s support for Russia’s war industry triggers alarms between the US and its allies

The signing of a “mutual assistance in case of external aggression” agreement between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un this week has caused consternation in Washington. The pact consolidates an increasingly intense alignment of Russia with its authoritarian neighbors in Asia – North Korea and China – that has long alarmed the United States and its allies in Europe and Asia. Beijing and Pyongyang’s support for Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine will be one of the dominant themes at the NATO summit in Washington next month, amid warnings that what is happening in Asia has an impact on the Old Continent.

“Putin’s visit to North Korea demonstrates and confirms the very close alignment between Russia and authoritarian states such as North Korea, but also China and Iran. He also demonstrates that our security is not regional, it is global. What happens in Europe matters to Asia, and vice versa. And that is clearly demonstrated in Ukraine, where Iran, North Korea, China sustain and fuel Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declared this week during a visit to Washington to prepare the summit.

Pyongyang and, above all, Beijing, have become essential suppliers to the Russian arms industry. North Korea, by supplying ammunition and artillery. China, thanks to an explosion in exports of dual-use products (civil and military), according to the United States and NATO. The agreement signed between Putin and Kim not only “takes the bilateral relationship to heights not seen since the end of the Cold War,” but also “symbolizes and confirms that North Korea will continue providing ammunition and missiles to Russia.” , which will allow Putin to continue his invasion of Ukraine,” analyzes Professor Ramón Pacheco Pardo, from the London School of Economics and professor for Korea at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel.

“North Korea has illegally transferred dozens of ballistic missiles and more than 11,000 containers full of ammunition to contribute to the Russian war effort,” denounces the State Department in Washington. As many as 4.8 million North Korean projectiles may have been fired in the war in Ukraine, according to South Korea’s Defense Department.

If Washington is concerned that North Korea is providing ammunition to Russia, it is also keeping it in suspense about what the regime of the third of the Kim dynasty – at the head of the only country in the world that has completed nuclear tests so far – will do. century― are getting or will receive in exchange for their help. “Cash? Energy supply? Capacities to make their nuclear products or missiles more advanced? We do not know. But we are concerned, and we look at it carefully,” said Undersecretary of State Kurt Campbell last week in a talk at the think tankStimson. “The entire relationship between Russia and North Korea is something that concerns us and we monitor carefully.”

There is concern not only about the effect that the collaboration of the two authoritarian countries could have on the battlefield in Ukraine, but also on the stability of Northeast Asia. The new agreement “makes clear that Russia will continue to support North Korea’s ballistic missile, spy satellite and nuclear program. That is a direct threat against South Korea and Japan, the main allies of the United States in Asia,” says Pacheco Pardo.

But if North Korean aid is significant, the one that keeps Washington awake at night is what China provides to Moscow, according to the complaint. Beijing, which since the beginning of the war has wanted to portray itself as a neutral country, does not send weapons to its partner. But “high priority” dual-use material, whose transfer to the neighboring country has skyrocketed, especially since Xi Jinping’s visit to Moscow in March of last year: it reached a maximum of 600 million dollars (about 561 million euros) last December and now exceeds 300 million dollars a month, according to Nathaniel Sher, of the think tank Carnegie Endowment. “Russian dependence on China for high-priority products exploded from 32% in 2021 to 89% in 2023,” this expert writes.

“When it comes to the key components and electronics that the Kremlin needs for its war machine, it has moved from very high-end military components to dual-use, or even purely civilian technologies. As a result, the composition of Russia’s suppliers has also changed, as more military products entering Russia come from civilian or dual-use suppliers,” a recent report from the think tank CSIS. “China has been Moscow’s main military partner throughout this period, in which it has provided direct and indirect support to the Russian military machine.”

Beijing provides 70% of the machine tools and 90% of the microelectronic components that Moscow imports, according to the US State Department. This material, Washington denounces, has helped Russia maintain its military industrial base despite the sanctions and the losses registered on the battlefield. Last December, the Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that its factories had delivered 1,500 tanks, 2,200 armored vehicles, 1,400 missiles and artillery weapons, and 22,000 drones.

“If China were to end its support for Russia, Moscow would have problems maintaining its war against Ukraine,” summarizes a senior State Department official. “This support actively enables the war against Ukraine, and represents a significant threat to European security,” he says. “Beijing believes it can empower Putin and rhetorically and materially support the greatest threat to transatlantic security at no cost to its relations with Europe.”

Specifically, Chinese companies provide Moscow, in addition to microelectronic components and tools for machinery, drone and cruise missile technology, optical components and nitrocellulose, which Russia uses to manufacture propellants for weapons.

With these materials, the Putin regime produces, among other things, an FPV (First Person View, very manageable and fast) type drone made almost entirely with Chinese components, which “typically costs less than $500 per unit assemble, and can transport a series of weapons and ammunition at 160 kilometers per hour towards its target,” according to the CSIS report. Ukrainian calculations cited in the document indicate that Russia could manufacture close to 300,000 units per month.

By 2023, trade between China and Russia had reached a record level of $240 billion, a 26.3% jump from the previous year that has placed Beijing as Moscow’s main trading partner. Chinese exports to its neighbor grew by 64.2% between 2021 and 2023. Machine tool spare parts, between 80% and 90% in 2023. Bearings, 345% from 2021 to Russia and 2,500% toward Kyrgyzstan, “also probably headed toward Russia,” according to calculations cited by the CSIS report.

The United States raised the issue during Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing in April. It has since imposed sanctions on Chinese companies for their collaboration with the Russian war effort, the latest round last week. And he assures that if Beijing does not stop supporting the Russian military industry, it will adopt more forceful measures.

During his visit to Washington, Stoltenberg also publicly demanded “consequences” for Beijing for its behavior. “China cannot have it all. “You cannot continue to have a normal trade relationship with European countries and at the same time fuel the biggest war we have seen in Europe since World War II,” he said on Tuesday during a joint press conference with Blinken. “Continuing as before is not viable.”

“We see how much military support Russia receives from North Korea, but also from Iran, and how China is propping up its war economy. And this is also one of the reasons why at the NATO summit we will further strengthen the partnership with our partners in the Asia-Pacific region: Australia and New Zealand, South Korea and Japan,” highlighted the senior international official. .

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