Telephone calls and video conferences are taking place frantically at this hour between the main Latin American leaders, the White House and all the advisors, ambassadors and foreign ministers who surround them. Given the growing suspicion that the Venezuelan government committed fraud on Sunday in the presidential elections in which Nicolás Maduro was declared the winner, a negotiated solution is being sought for Chavismo. “We are talking about the most important and difficult political operation of this century in America,” says a source familiar with these conversations at the highest level.
The negotiations are urgent. The aim is to prevent the Venezuelan authorities’ repression of the protesters from intensifying and the death toll from rising with each passing hour. So far, 20 murders have been documented, according to the Human Rights Watch organization, and the Venezuelan Attorney General’s Office estimates that more than 1,000 people have been arrested during the protests. The weight of the talks is being carried by Joe Biden’s operators and representatives of the governments of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, according to this same source, and their objective is to convince Chavismo of the need to show the minutes of the electoral centers and clear up any doubt about the result. At this point, few regional leaders believe that Maduro has won fairly. And the government’s refusal to show the minutes leaves little room for imagination.
At this point, Latin American leaders are dusting off the agreements that they tried to get the Maduro government and the majority opposition, that of Edmundo González Urrutia and María Corina Machado, to sign before the elections. These documents committed the parties to accept the result and allow, if it occurred, a transfer of power without trauma, without persecution or revenge. The agreement, in reality, was a way of ensuring Maduro and his inner circle a way out, although it was not verbalized explicitly so as not to offend the Chavista leaders. Maduro heard this proposal for an agreement formulated by Gustavo Petro, the president of Colombia, and told him that he would review it and give a response. He never did.
The Chavista government has never been so alone in its positions, not even when the United States led a smear campaign against Maduro for his controversial re-election in 2018 and promoted a parallel president, Juan Guaidó, in 2019. Hugo Chávez, who appointed Maduro as his successor before dying of cancer, had the support of other regional leaders such as Lula da Silva in Brazil and Rafael Correa in Ecuador. Petro hosted Chávez during one of his visits to Bogotá, shortly after his release from prison following the 1992 coup attempt.
Now, neither Lula nor Petro support Maduro’s maneuver to anchor himself in power, and Correa, who has sided with the Venezuelan president, does not govern and his influence is increasingly diminishing. Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Mexican president, did not meet Chávez in person, but has declared on several occasions that he respected him. Although he said on Wednesday that the fraud has not been proven, he has also demanded a recount and the presentation of the minutes, a way of aligning himself with Brazil and Colombia. Petro has been more forceful in a message on social media: “The serious doubts that are established around the Venezuelan electoral process can lead its people to a deep violent polarization with serious consequences of division (…). I invite the Venezuelan government to allow the elections to end in peace by allowing a transparent scrutiny with a counting of votes, minutes and with oversight by all the political forces of its country and professional international oversight.”
The talks are being held directly with Maduro and his main political operator, Jorge Rodríguez, also president of the Assembly. The tone of both, since the results were announced and immediately began to be questioned almost immediately, is harsh and defiant. Rodríguez went so far as to ask on Tuesday for Edmundo and Machado to be imprisoned. The Venezuelan president blames everything on “a fascist conspiracy.” Maduro has asked the Venezuelan Supreme Court (TSJ) on Tuesday to carry out an audit of the presidential elections, for which he has filed “an appeal for protection.” The president was received by the president of the court, Caryslia Rodríguez. With this he seeks to legitimize his victory, although it may have little weight abroad. It is well known that the TSJ responds to the will of Chavismo. Maduro asked the court to “clarify everything that needs to be clarified.”
Since Sunday, the president of the CNE – the electoral referee – Elvis Amoroso, a friend of Maduro, denounced that there was a hack in the system, hence the delay in offering the results. Later, the attorney general, Tarek William Saab, said that this cyber attack came from North Macedonia and blamed the opposition, without providing further evidence. The government of that Balkan country said in a statement that these accusations had no basis. The government is clinging to these alleged boycotts as an excuse to prevent access to the original records.
Caracas woke up on Wednesday to a stormy night in the police and military. Many businesses have not yet opened their doors. People have reduced their movements in the city to a minimum for fear of being caught in the middle of a confrontation. The protests began early on Monday morning, when the CNE announced Maduro as the winner by a million votes ahead of Edmundo, but without showing the voting centre records, the main proof. Chavismo did not count on the opposition mobilisation, which had foreseen this scenario and had witnesses on its side all over the country, even in the most remote places. They saved and processed all the records to present an alternative number to the official one, which would prove the fraud.
What countries are seeking in talks with Chavez is that the situation on the streets does not worsen. In addition to the 20 documented deaths, there are already a thousand detainees, among them many opponents related to Machado and Edmundo. The prosecutor, in a defiant tone, said on Wednesday that there will be no clemency, but “justice.” That has not prevented people from taking to the streets and continuing to protest. The situation is at a standstill, waiting for negotiations to unblock it. Washington’s firm position has been established in recent hours by John Kirby, the White House spokesman for national security affairs: “Our patience is running out waiting for the CNE to tell the truth.”
Follow all the information from El PAÍS América on Facebook and Xor in our weekly newsletter.
