The crisis that has erupted in Venezuela following the presidential elections has been stuck in the same place since July 28, when after a massive day of voting, the National Electoral Council (CNE), in the hands of the ruling party, proclaimed Nicolás Maduro the winner without, almost three weeks later, providing evidence to support the victory. In addition to the lack of evidence of Maduro’s victory, there are accusations of fraud by the opposition, which has made public more than 80% of the minutes in its possession; the harsh reports of the Carter Center, an observer authorized by Chavismo and the United Nations, and the attentive and cautious position of the international community, more focused on pointing out the lack of transparency in the elections than on imposing winners. At the heart of it all are the plans by Brazil, Colombia and Mexico to seek a negotiated solution, now promoted by Presidents Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Gustavo Petro, who are proposing in unison the possibility of new elections or a transitional coalition government to lead to free and fair elections. The idea, which was already in the air and from which Andrés Manuel López Obrador has stayed away, has been criticized by both Chavismo and the opposition.
After nearly 20 days of insisting that the publication of the minutes by the CNE is essential, on Thursday Lula and Petro proposed the possibility of repeating the elections or attempting a coalition government. The presidents of Venezuela’s two main neighbors are seeking to unblock the issue and put pressure on Maduro, whom they have personally questioned. The Brazilian president was direct with the leader of Chavismo: “If (Maduro) has common sense, he could put it to the people, perhaps calling new elections with a non-partisan electoral committee,” he said in an interview on Thursday.
The Brazilian president has not yet recognized Maduro as the winner of the vote and has continued to insist on the need to publish the vote counts that have not been released. “Maduro knows that he owes the world an explanation,” said Lula. In the international community there seems to be a tacit consensus on the need to agree on a transition of power in Venezuela through a negotiation for which these first formulas are now being launched. And this consensus is supported by another: the results with which Maduro is fleeing forward to entrench himself in a third presidential term —with which he would be in power for more years than Hugo Chávez himself— are not credible for a large part of democratic countries.
Repeating elections is, however, a high-voltage proposal. The idea, for now, has been rejected by Chavismo itself and also by sectors that support the opposition. “There will not be repeat elections here because Nicolás Maduro won,” responded Diosdado Cabello, political leader of the governing party, the PSUV, to the proposal that had already been previously suggested by Lula’s advisor on international affairs, Celso Amorim.
Maduro has not shown, so far, any willingness to find a way out of the post-electoral conflict that has cast further shadows over his legitimacy, so he has turned to the Supreme Court, which he controls, to try to validate his victory, although this body has not yet decided. Chavismo has also shown no obvious cracks in its coalition, which is well supported by the Armed Forces, thereby gaining time and taking advantage of this inertia to stay in power.
Maduro’s lack of will to find a solution to the conflict
The opposition has also not welcomed the proposal, especially from Brazil, of the possibility of new elections, although it has expressed its willingness to negotiate. In any case, any dialogue, they insist, will be based on the results of July 28 that they have in their possession and that give victory to Edmundo González. The leader of the opposition, or of the democratic forces as she calls herself, María Corina Machado, has also rejected the proposal of a repeat of the elections. “If we go to a second election and Maduro doesn’t like the result, what do we do, go to a third, and then to a fourth or a fifth? We went to elections with the rules of tyranny despite the criticism of many and we won,” responded the leader.
An election managed by a non-partisan organisation also looks like an uphill battle, when the government has strongly condemned the reports of the international observers from the Carter Centre and the United Nations, who were invited by Chavismo itself. The elections of 28 July were also for which guarantees were agreed in the Barbados agreement with the opposition and the mediation of Norway, which Chavismo let die on paper. The possibility of a coalition government, about which President Gustavo Petro referred to the Colombian National Front, was also ruled out by Machado, due to the particularities of the Venezuelan context.
Until January 10, when the new government is scheduled to take office, various formulas could appear, but what is not yet evident is the core: Maduro’s will to find a way out of the conflict. And on that date, the international community will have to adjust its positions. “If there is no will from within the Maduro government to initiate serious negotiations to find a political solution, in the medium and long term it is very possible that Venezuela will find itself in a blind alley, and we do not know how long it will be,” warns Mariano de Alba, a specialist in international relations and diplomacy.
Chavismo has already survived periods of diplomatic isolation that could be repeated if there is no solution to the current crisis of legitimacy of its government, which, in the opinion of the analyst, would not be greater than those experienced since 2019. “In this case we are moving towards a semi-isolated government, with a very high cost for the people, in which the possibilities of economic recovery or maintaining the small rebound of the last year are minimal,” says the analyst.
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