Budget 2024-25: Will the market rise or fall after the budget? In the last 10 years, there has been a competition between bulls and bears

Stock Market Post Budget : The first full budget of the Modi government’s 3.0 tenure will be presented by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on 23 July 2024. Before the budget, the stock market rose significantly and the Sensex crossed the 80000 level. However, just before the budget, the market has been witnessing a continuous decline for 2 days in search of a new or fresh trigger. Let us tell you that this year both Sensex and Nifty have seen a double digit rise.

The market is strong in the budget month this year

Talking about this year, Sensex and Nifty have strengthened in the 1 month before the budget on 23 July. In the last 1 month, Sensex has strengthened by about 3160 points or 4 percent. Nifty has also strengthened by 970 points or 4.15 percent.

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The market broke down in the last 2 days

On Friday, July 19, the Sensex witnessed a decline of 739 points and closed at the level of 80605. While the Nifty closed at the level of 24,531, falling 270 points.

On 22 July, i.e. Monday, the Sensex witnessed a decline of 103 points and closed at the level of 80502. While the Nifty closed at the level of 24,509, falling 22 points.

Now the question arises that what will be the condition of the stock market after the budget. If we look at the trade of the last 10 years, there has been a trend of some pressure on the market in the pre-budget month. But before the budget, the ratio of bulls and bears has been 50:50.

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Post Budget Month: Current Status from 2014 to 2023

If we look at the one month period after the budget, the Sensex and Nifty have risen five times and fallen five times.

2023: In the year 2023, the market declined in the post budget month. In the 1 month after the budget on 1 February, both Sensex and Nifty declined by around 1 percent and 1.5 percent respectively.

2022: There was a decline in the post budget market in the year 2022. However, some global factors including corona virus were behind the decline. After the budget on February 1, the Sensex weakened by 2616 points or 4.5 percent in 1 month.

2021: In the year 2021, the Sensex had gained 2.6 per cent in the post-budget month.

2020: In the year 2020, the Sensex has fallen by about 3.5 percent in 1 month after the budget.

2019: In the year 2019, the Sensex has seen a rise of 4.6 percent in one month after the budget.

2018: In the year 2018, the Sensex fell by 5.18 percent in a month after the budget.

2017: Post budget market strengthened in the year 2017 and Sensex strengthened by 3 percent in 1 month.

2016: In 2016 too, the market was bullish after the budget. The Sensex strengthened by 6.5 per cent in the post budget month.

2015: In the year 2015, the Sensex fell by 4.7 percent in one month after the budget.

2014: In the year 2014, the Sensex strengthened by about 6.69 percent in one month after the budget.

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10 years: Market crashed 7 times pre-budget

Talking about pre-budget, in the last 10 years, i.e. between 2015 and 2024, it has happened 3 times, when the stock market strengthened in the first 1 month of the budget presentation in the Modi government. In 2024, the markets rose 4 percent in the budget month. In 2017, the stock market rose 4 percent in the budget month. Whereas in the year 2018, the stock market strengthened by 5.5 percent.

2024: In the last 1 month, the Sensex has gained about 3160 points or 4 percent. At the same time, the Nifty has also gained 970 points or 4.15 percent.

2023: In the pre-budget month, the Sensex closed down by about 1300 points or 2 per cent, while the Nifty also weakened by 2.5 per cent or 445 points.

2022: Between January 1, 2022 and January 31, 2022, the Sensex fell from the level of 59183 to the level of 58014. The Sensex fell by 2 percent.

2021: In the pre-budget month of 2021, the Sensex fell from the level of 47868 to the level of 46286. The Sensex fell by 1582 points i.e. 3.3 percent.

2020: Sensex fell 1.28 percent in the pre-budget month.

2019: After the Narendra Modi government came back to power in 2019, the budget was presented on 5 July. Between 5 June and 4 July, the Sensex had weakened by 0.04 percent.

2016: Sensex weakened by about 6.1 percent.

2015: Sensex fell 1.15 percent in the pre-budget month.

2014: After the formation of the NDA government in 2014, the budget was presented in July. In the first month, the Sensex weakened by about half a percent.