The debate is no longer whether to spend more on European defense, but how. In full global geopolitical earthquake, the European Commission probes further relaxes the fiscal rules-and even some kind of extraordinary suspension, as happened with COVID-19-to give the most margin states in their military spending, without being sanctioned by deficit excessive. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, raised this measure to the leaders of the 27 EU member states as one of the options on the table to boost the (for careless years) European Defense Industry and reinforcement of military capacities. All this when Russia’s large -scale war against Ukraine will reach his third anniversary, and on the other side of the Atlantic, the US president, Donald Trump, pushes European allies to spend more in defense.
“If you look at national budgets, they are constrained. They have been constrained so far through the new rules of the stability and growth pact. For extraordinary times, it is possible to have extraordinary measures also in the stability and growth pact, and I think we live in extraordinary times, ”said the head of the Community Executive on Monday night, after a meeting with the twenty -seven dedicated to organized defense by the president of the European Council, António Costa.
Finding mechanisms for national budgets to have more margin of spending is also a way to gain time in the face of another debate that has been very present in the union for months: how to jointly finance at least part of the huge investment in defense than defense than It is necessary? In Brussels few believe that this debate can open openly until after the legislative elections in Germany (on February 23). “The European Union does not have the prospect of assuming a common debt,” said German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, Monday night, after the quotation in the community capital. However, this time Berlin does not have many of its traditional frugal allies. Finland, Denmark or the three Baltic Republics align with Poland, Maximum Defender of this exit.
An anecdote during the press conference after the European Council demonstrates the care with which the issue is treated so as not to anger anyone in Berlin. The Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, said he had the impression that in the appointment the chancellor had been “more positive” before his approaches at the beginning of one of his interventions. At the end he asked journalists to be “precise” with their words “because there are elections in Germany.”
But there is no time to lose, as Costa recalled. “We all agree that we have to spend more, but also better and fast,” the Portuguese opted. The rush arrives, among other things, because 23 of the 27 community states are also NATO allies. Seventeen of the European partners of that military organization have reached the commitment to spend 2% of GDP in defense; Six no, among them Spain (which with 1.28% is in tail) and Italy. But now, while discussing how to boost defense, giving priority to aerial protections, missiles, ammunition and military transport, the Atlantic Alliance discusses a new expense roof that could exceed 3%.
Getting to those figures requires a lot of money and a lot of fiscal effort in an EU that is immersed in the almost impossible task of blowing and sip. On the one hand, it is about reducing the public debt mountain that accumulated during the three systemic crises suffered in the last 15 years (financial, pandemic and energy); On the other, look for resources to invest hundreds of billions in the twin and digital transition – and in defense, peremptory need since Russia invaded Ukraine. In this context, fiscal rules were designed much more flexible than the previous ones and of which the predicate elasticity will now be tested. There you have to frame the phrase of von der Leide of the “extraordinary times”, such as those of the COVID-19.
The spokesmen of the Commission have not wanted to realize on Tuesday what the president referred to with those words. But they have not ruled out on the escape clause, even partially. “The escape clause is part of the frame [regulatorio del Pacto de Estabilidad y Crecimiento] And if very specific conditions are met, as with the pandemic, there is the theoretical possibility of activating it, ”they have pointed out.
Yes, it seems that with the leaders the German extended something else. He put on the table that flexible interpretation of the rules and that was well received by the Member States, something that Foreign Minister Scholz himself admitted at the end of the meeting. “We have to create more flexibility for each of the countries. That is the task for the near future, ”said the social democrat, who also put on the table that the competition rules should change to facilitate the purchase rules and give a boost to the defense industry, in which Germany has great assets .
The EU leaders supported mostly on Monday, at the meeting in the community capital – in the form of “retirement”, with few advisors and a less credited conversation than the general summits -, the formula of flexible the fiscal pact that von der raised Leide as one of the hypotheses. And it could be done through expanding the general framework of the so -called exhaust clause, which is nothing more than a suspension of the standards, to apply some special treatment to defense spending. Although as the responses of the official spokesmen make clear, the idea seems that it has not yet gone from that stadium: “I do not think we are in a position to share more technical details at this point in the process.”
In addition, they have also recalled that Von der Leyen not only talked about a state expenditure level. He also did one shared, with projects that can be financed by the European Investment Bank, and private initiative.
In any case, the need for disbursement is huge, multimillionaire, several European sources of debates highlight. And although in the short term the simplest measure is that the Member States spend more, each one for their side, and perhaps without that corset of the stability pact, Brussels does not rule out any option. There are no red lines. Not even joint loans (such as Eurobones) to finance those millionaire investments. Even despite the rejection of Germany, very aware of the February 23 elections.
The European Commission will present to the leaders its proposals in mid -March. The general feeling is that you have to take measures as soon as possible. Although the issue has been around the European dome tables for months. In March of last year, the European Commission and the Foreign Action Service presented the new European Defense Strategy and little has since been advanced.
