Brussels observes the electoral results in France with concern and holds its breath in the face of a second round that could elevate the extreme right in the EU’s second largest economy. The arrival of an ultra, eurosceptic (almost europhobic), xenophobic and ultranationalist party like Marine Le Pen’s National Rally and its leader, Jordan Bardella, who aspires to sit in the prime minister’s chair, would be a colossal earthquake in the EU. France is one of the founding countries of the community club and, together with Germany, one of its driving forces. If the RN manages to form a Government, France, and with it, the EU, would enter unknown territory. And it can stop the progress of the European project at a key moment for its survival in a turbulent global situation, warn several community sources who observe the situation in uneasy silence.
Not all scenarios in France (67.9 million inhabitants) are bad for the European agenda, but none are good, warns a veteran diplomat. The RN has obtained around nine million votes in the first round of the legislative elections, according to estimates; and some seven million in the European elections on June 9, which led President Emmanuel Macron to make the decision to call the French to the polls and which has been a huge setback for the center and his party.
“The results from France have also shown the pattern of the rise of the far right and a certain Euroscepticism. And that, whether Le Pen’s party takes office or not, is going to be noticeable in French politics in Brussels,” warns the diplomat, who speaks on condition of anonymity. The general instruction is not to comment on elections – not even European ones – and even less those of another Member State, but also that nothing is decided and that we will have to see what happens next Sunday. In any case, the uncertainties do not decrease, but rather increase in a Union in which the extreme right already forms or supports governments in eight countries.
The French earthquake also arrives at a crucial moment for the community club that, in the legislature that is going to begin, must undertake substantial changes to achieve strategic autonomy, a competitive economy, in a continent at war – that of Russia against Ukraine — and in tension due to Israel’s offensive in Gaza in a conflict that may spread throughout the Middle East region; and who, in addition, observes with concern the result of other crucial elections: those in the United States, which could mean the return of the populist Republican Donald Trump.
“France is essential to pull the European wagon,” warns a high-ranking community source. The EU has dealt with wayward partners, such as Poland and Hungary, with their authoritarian drift, and with a complicated divorce, such as the United Kingdom’s departure from the EU in a traumatic Brexit. “But what will happen if Paris starts to stop all European policies? “They won’t get ahead,” highlights the source.
A cohabitation of Macron with a RN government, which calls for “France first” policies and less Brussels, and with a vision of the EU that is absolutely opposite to that of the French president, could lead to clashes in the community institutions. Even now, when the result of Sunday’s elections is not yet known, Le Pen maintains that it is the government’s responsibility to appoint the French commissioner, while the Elysée maintains that it is hers, like all foreign policy. France is a member of the UN Security Council, of the G-7 and is the only country in the Union with nuclear weapons (and a doctrine outside of NATO on their use).
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A victory for Le Pen’s far right could, for example, undermine EU support for Ukraine, European sources warn. “But it could also affect a major rise in the left-wing republican front,” says a senior EU official. The left has called for a united front and President Macron has urged people to vote “republican” to once again form a dam against the far right. But cracks are already appearing in the cordon sanitaire.
The RN has been in the spotlight for years for its links to the Kremlin – the party received a nine million euro loan from a Russian bank in 2014 and Le Pen has declared that she shares Vladimir Putin’s global vision – although it distanced itself from Russia after the invasion of Ukraine and has tried to keep the issue from tarnishing its campaign. Even so, in the party’s thematic proposals on Defence – that section was removed from the index of key issues on the website shortly after Macron called elections – it advocates an “alliance” with Russia on “core issues”, such as European security issues.
A very weak RN Government or a French Executive affected by the rise of the extreme right can also prevent new trade agreements, water down and hinder the environmental agenda – which already has more detractors in the EU – and shelve the prospects of the next great expansion of the community club to the East. The RN does not support the capital market union, and without France, a diplomat warns, this initiative will have no future either.
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