The feeling that Joe Biden’s replacement as the Democratic Party’s candidate is inevitable is spreading rapidly. After a few weeks of denial, the president has begun to open up to reconsidering his decision to move forward. Although he hopes to resume his official agenda and campaign again next week, Biden is currently secluded recovering from Covid at his beach house in Rehoboth Beach (Delaware), where he is reflecting on his future. As the pressure increases, the conviction among Democrats is growing that withdrawal is a matter of time. The drop in donations, new defections in Congress and the deterioration of the Democrats’ electoral prospects are taking their toll.
The president used a statement after Donald Trump’s acceptance speech for the Republican nomination to say: “I look forward to returning to the campaign trail next week to continue to denounce the threat of Donald Trump’s Project 2025 agenda, while defending my own track record and vision for America: one in which we save our democracy, protect our rights and freedoms, and create opportunity for all.”
Campaign chair Jen O’Malley Dillon said on an MSNBC morning show Friday that President Biden is “absolutely” in the presidential race, calling him the “best person to take on Donald Trump.” The Republican candidate closed out the Republican convention on Thursday with a speech in which his journey to moderation lasted just over 15 minutes, leaving room for Democrats seeking to capture the moderate and independent vote.
The question is whether Biden is really the best candidate when two-thirds of Democratic voters are in favor of a change. O’Malley Dillon admits that there has been a decline, but it has not gone beyond that. “We have definitely seen some slippage in support, but it has been a small movement,” he said, fulfilling his obligation to defend the candidate as long as he is one.
The American media is making massive use of “could” and other convoluted and hypothetical constructions to define the situation these days, to the point of provoking some parodies. According to The New York Times, People close to the president say it “appears” that Biden accepts that he “might” have to step away from the race. The Washington Post claims that Nancy Pelosi, former Speaker of the House of Representatives, has conveyed to Democratic congressmen that the candidate “could” soon be convinced of the need to step aside. The digital Axios He already said on Thursday that Biden could make the decision to throw in the towel this weekend.
Along with the hypotheses, there are facts. Jon Tester became the second Democratic senator to call for Biden to step aside on Thursday, and Martin Heinrich became the third on Friday, the morning after the conclusion of the Republican National Convention. “While I appreciate his commitment to public service and our country, I believe President Biden should not seek re-election for another term,” Tester said in a statement. The Montana senator is running for election in November, but re-election is a tough ask. He won his seat in 2018, in Donald Trump’s midterm elections, in which Republicans had a dismal showing. But it is a state with a Republican majority: in the 2020 elections, Trump beat Biden there by more than 15 points. Heinrich, from New Mexico, said in his statement: “While the decision to withdraw from the campaign is President Biden’s alone, I believe it is in the best interest of our country for him to step aside.” Although New Mexico is Democratic, Heinrich has a narrow lead over her Republican rival in the polls.
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Desertions
The senators were joined on Friday by five additional members of the House of Representatives. Around 25 have now expressly called for his removal. “The time has come for me to pass the torch to a new generation of Democratic leaders,” four of them told the president in a joint letter: Jared Huffman of California; Marc Veasey of Texas; Mark Pocan of Wisconsin; and Jesus Garcia of Illinois.
These defections show that Biden’s efforts to hold rallies, give interviews, appear at press conferences and demonstrate his ability have not yet erased the stain of the disastrous June 27 debate against Trump in Atlanta.
Biden, who has been a senator for decades, is sensitive to pressure from Congress. The president has had conversations with the Democratic leaders of the House of Representatives, Hakeem Jeffries, and the Senate, Chuck Schumer. After those meetings, he has been open to reconsidering the situation in the face of the prospect of a probable electoral defeat that would drag down the party and give the Republicans not only the White House but also control of Congress.
In a radio interview on Friday, Jeffries was respectful of his candidate: “President Biden is right when he says that he went through a primary process and that some 14 million voters gave him the Democratic nomination. It is his decision.”
Another fact is that money from big donors is flowing less strongly into Biden’s campaign. There are no official figures yet, but prominent donors have publicly announced that they were cutting their contributions. The campaign has fairly full coffers and that is not a pressing problem, but it increases the difficulty for Biden to successfully seek re-election.
The timetable for a possible withdrawal is tightening. The rules committee for the Democratic convention, which will be held in Chicago from August 19 to 22, met on Friday. The Democrats are planning to nominate their candidate in advance via telematics. The Democrats have left this process for August, and plan to do so before August 7.
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