Biden clings to his candidacy, but Trump’s chances of victory soar with the attack

Joe Biden is listed on the stock market. More precisely, the chances of Biden being the Democratic candidate in the presidential elections on November 5 are traded on prediction markets such as Polymarket or PredicIt. Biden’s stock price suffered a shock on June 27, the day of his disastrous performance in the debate against Donald Trump. From being almost certain that he would be the Democratic nominee, in less than a week he went to a 75% probability of withdrawal. The president, however, has recovered and now no one is clear on what the outcome will be. The markets give a probability close to 50% to each scenario. Heads or tails. Biden is betting on himself.

At the same time, the outcome of the presidential election is also in play. Trump’s chance of victory in Polymarket shot up 10 points, to 70%, this Saturday after the attack suffered by former President Donald Trump at a rally in Pennsylvania, in which he was slightly injured. Trump’s security is the responsibility of the Secret Service and ultimately, therefore, Biden’s, so there may be those who blame him for not having done enough to protect his rival, who at the same time appears as a martyr or hero in the eyes, at least, of his supporters.

For Biden, it is a new obstacle, after questions about his age and mental acuity. “I promise you I’m fine,” the president told dozens of voters on Friday at the Garage Grill and Fuel Bar in Northville, Michigan, a roadside bar in a state that could be decisive for the presidential election on November 5. Shortly afterward, he held a rally in Detroit. “There is a lot of speculation right now. What is Joe going to do, is he going to stay?” he asked before answering: “I’m running and we’re going to win.” “Don’t drop out!” his supporters chanted. “You made me the candidate,” Biden said, referring to those who supported him in the primaries. “Not the press, not the pundits, not the experts, not the donors. You, the voters, decided. No one else. And I’m not going anywhere.”

Biden then returned to his beach house in Rehoboth, Delaware. After a frenetic succession of official and campaign events since the day of the Atlanta debate, the president faced a weekend without any public events on his agenda. Finally, he had to appear in court for the attack on Trump and then decided to return to the White House on Saturday evening, from where he will follow the development of the crisis.

The president is scheduled to tour the country again next week, with events in Austin, Texas, and Las Vegas, Nevada, as the Republican Party prepares to crown Trump in Milwaukee and the Democrats sink into a self-destructive dynamic that erodes their electoral chances.

There are about twenty congressmen from his party who have asked the president to give up re-election. For now, it is less than 10%. Many more are asking him to stay, although the vast majority remain silent. Biden is having telematic meetings with different groups of congressmen from the party. In one of them, the representative for California, Mike Levin, openly asked him to withdraw.

Biden has failed to end the debate over his ability to be a candidate first, and then president for four more years. In a letter to lawmakers sent on Monday, he declared himself “firmly committed” to reelection. “The question of how to move forward has been well underway for over a week. And it is time for it to end,” he wrote. “It is time to come together, move forward as a unified party, and defeat Donald Trump.” But one of the recipients of that letter, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a high-powered figure in the party, seemed oblivious: “It is up to the president to decide whether he will run. We all encourage him to make that decision. Because time is of the essence,” she said on Wednesday.

The Democratic leader insisted on Thursday that he was moving forward: “I am the most qualified person to run for president,” he said shortly after starting the press conference he gave after the NATO summit. Shortly before, he had introduced the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, as “President Putin” and when answering the first question from journalists he referred to his number two, Kamala Harris, as “Vice President Trump.” Except for those and a few other name-droppings, Biden was correct in his appearance.

The president praised Harris: “I wouldn’t have picked her unless I thought she was qualified to be president from the beginning. I have no doubt about that.” However, when asked if he would hand over the baton to her if he thought she would beat Donald Trump, he was firm: “Not unless they came in and said, ‘There’s no way you’re going to win. ’ Nobody says that. No poll says that.”

Four years ago, much attention was paid to who Biden chose as his number two, because he himself seemed to present himself as a one-term president. He spoke of being a “bridge” for another generation. On Thursday, he was asked what had changed: “What changed was the gravity of the situation that I inherited in terms of the economy, foreign policy and internal division,” he said first. And then he referred to the risks to democracy and Trump’s ultra-conservative agenda. “That is the other reason why I have not given way to another generation. I have to finish this job, because there is a lot at stake,” he added.

Diplomatic sources at the NATO summit say they noticed the president in poor shape. They say attendees held their breath when he spoke for fear he would slip up. They say he sometimes struggled to get his point across. Biden was specifically asked Thursday about how many summit attendees were pointing out that his decline had become apparent, and the president flatly rejected it. “If I slow down and can’t get the job done, that’s a sign that I shouldn’t be doing it. But there’s no sign of that yet. None,” he said after defending the success of the summit. “Every day my neurological capacity is tested, [con] “The decisions I make every day,” he added. “And every day I’m surrounded by good doctors. If they think I should have another neurological exam, I will. But no one is suggesting it.”

Among the president’s endorsements, this Saturday he received support from his main rival in the 2020 primaries, Senator Bernie Sanders, through an article in The New York Times. “For more than two weeks now, the corporate media has been obsessively focused on the June presidential debate and the cognitive abilities of a man who has perhaps the most difficult and stressful job in the world. The media has frantically searched for every living human being who no longer supports the president or any neurologist who wants to appear on television. Unfortunately, too many Democrats have joined that circular firing squad,” he wrote. “Yes, I know: Mr. Biden is old, prone to gaffes, walks stiffly, and had a disastrous debate with Mr. Trump. But I know this too: A presidential election is not an entertainment contest. It does not begin and end with a 90-minute debate,” he argues. “Enough already! Biden may not be the ideal candidate, but he will be the candidate and he must be the candidate. And with an effective campaign that speaks to the needs of working families, he will not only defeat Trump, he will beat him resoundingly. It is time for Democrats to stop arguing and bickering,” he concludes.

There are doubts among Democrats about whether it is a better strategy to continue trying to change candidates or to close ranks with the one they have. Biden himself has provided practical arguments in favor of his campaign. “We are organized. We are on the move. And that is very difficult to replace in the short term,” he said. “There are also other people who could beat Trump. But it is horrible to start from scratch,” he warned. And in response to those who point out that there are donors who have stopped financing his campaign, he responds with the bank account: “We have about 220 million dollars in the bank. And we are doing well.”

Prediction markets that are inconclusive on whether Biden will be the Democratic nominee point to Trump as the favorite to occupy the White House next year, especially after Saturday’s attack on the former president. A countdown clock shows 114 days until the election. “I always had an inclination, whether I was playing sports or politics, to just keep going, not stop,” Biden said Thursday. That remains his plan: not to stop.

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