The Conservative Party of the United Kingdom has been dubbed the most successful political party in the world. A perfect machine for winning elections. Sixteen prime ministers throughout the 20th and 21st centuries, compared to four from the Labor Party. And of the latter, only Tony Blair achieved the feat of being re-elected for more than one consecutive term. It is not surprising that with this background, added to the scandal of the suits and free football tickets that Keir Starmer has starred in, and his low popularity due to the announced social cuts, the tories They held their annual conference this week in the city of Birmingham in a state of denial of reality. Convinced that it is possible to return to the Government in 2029, when the polls are called again.
The perverse effect of this overconfidence is to avoid any sincere exercise of self-criticism. Virtually the four candidates who aspire to lead the party agree on the diagnosis of defeat: the voters, they say, turned their backs on them on July 4 for not being conservative enough. “We sound right-wing but we govern as if we were left-wing,” said Kemi Badenoch, the most popular contender among the grassroots. tories.
Both Badenoch, former Minister of International Trade, and Rober Jenrick, former Secretary of State for Immigration; James Cleverly, former Minister of the Interior or Tom Tugendhat, former president of the Foreign Affairs Commission, have launched these days in Congress tory slogans and stuffy recipes, such as lower taxes, the promise of a less interventionist government, a tough line on immigration and large doses of patriotism.
There is still almost a month to find out who will take the reins of the party. During the next October 9 and 10, the 121 conservative deputies (a small number, compared to the 358 of the previous legislative mandate) will vote by rejection until the number of candidates is reduced to two. A full-fledged campaign will then begin among the rank and file of the party (about 170,000 members), who will cast their vote on October 31. On Saturday, November 2, the name of the winner will be announced.
Maternity leaves and “military murders”
The shadow of the populist party Reform UKled by Nigel Farage, weighs like a weight on the shoulders of the conservatives, increasingly leaning to the right in their speech for fear of losing even more territory. In the last elections, Farage’s party won 14.3% of the votes, compared to 23.7% of the tories. For the first time in its history, it managed to win five seats in the House of Commons, and circumvent the barrier imposed by a majority voting system that has historically favored the two-party system.
The two candidates with the most radical speech have skated with statements that have raised blisters in the most moderate sector of the party. Badenoch, in his obsession with resurrecting Margaret Thatcher and reducing any government intervention in the economy, went so far as to suggest on the BBC that the maternity leave that exists today in the United Kingdom “had gone too far” and that “many companies and “Businesses are closing, overwhelmed by excessive regulation.” Aware of his mistake, he tried to blame the journalist for his own mistake.
Jenrick, until now the favorite among MPs and the rank and file, has gone much further in his comments. He is the only one of the candidates who openly promises that he will withdraw the United Kingdom from the European Convention on Human Rights and will no longer submit to the jurisdiction of the European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR). He blames the treaty and the tribunal, which the British helped put in place more than half a century ago, for the Government’s inability to curb irregular immigration. And many more things. “Our special forces [del Ejército] “They are forced to kill the terrorists, instead of arresting them, because our lawyers tell us that, if they are captured, the ECtHR will release them,” Jenrick said in a campaign video published on from which he did not want to retract.
Both Tugendhat and Cleverly, who have been soldiers before politicians, have joined the scandalized voices at a comment that reflects the drift in which a notable part of the conservatives have incurred.
Of the two, it is probably Tugendhat, who represents a moderate faction that is increasingly in the minority, who has the greatest chance of falling in the next votes. “Labour has already made it clear to us what they are. They are aimless, selfish and greedy. They have taken us back to the seventies, to the politics of division, socialism, high taxes, more regulation, more control… we must fight to rescue our country,” was forced to proclaim the candidate who, in theory, emerged as the more tempered voice of a party adrift in extremes.
That’s why Cleverly, the most likeable but also the most opportunistic candidate, has begun to rise slightly in the polls. With the same speech as his contenders. Or similar. He is more devoted to Ronald Reagan than Margaret Thatcher. “He lowered taxes, deregulated, increased military spending, and swept the ballot box. Let’s be like Reagan. Enthusiastic, positive, optimistic. “Let’s be more normal,” he promised members on Tuesday. The same as the others, but with “normality”.
Perhaps Cleverly’s greatest audacity has been to be the only one of the contenders who has promised the bases that everything will remain the same, but without needing to fear the threat of Farage. “Reform UK did not bring Brexit or reduce immigration. We will be able to defeat them electorally if we are our best version, and not a pale copy of what they propose. No unions (…) Farage and Starmer are two sides of the same coin,” he proclaimed.