Spain and France play tonight’s semi-final in Munich (21.00, La1) for them, obviously, because they will be in Berlin on Sunday for the final, which would be the fifth for La Roja, which has accumulated three titles, the fourth for the bluewhich adds two. But they are also playing in part to elucidate a battle of styles that is the focus of much of the neutral footballing scene. The most proactive team in the Euros, “the team that has played the best”, according to Didier Deschamps himself, is facing his team, which in recent years has represented the profitability of risk control and has accumulated devoted followers.
Success drives trends. Just as Spain’s three titles between 2008 and 2012 sowed the appetite for qualification, Deschamps’ France later found followers. Like the Moroccan Walid Regragui, who touched the sky with his team in the semi-finals of the World Cup in Qatar, reached by the path of French pragmatism, an influence he often celebrated during his time in Doha. Regragui, who had begun his career with an approach that he described as Guardiola-style, abandoned that path due to the lack of suitable players. The France coach, world champion in 2018, finalist in 2022, with plenty of talent in his squad, provided discursive cover for the most functional formulas of approaching football. Even Southgate’s England, also semi-finalists, has come close to them with all its brilliant battalion from the Premier League.
If there is one thing that has marked this Euros in football, it is the general conservatism in which the great talents have dissolved. “If you get bored, change the channel and put on another game. You don’t have to watch our games,” Deschamps defended himself yesterday against accusations of boredom. “But we also have the ability to make many French men and women happy.”
The tournament, with only three games left, has left us with only a few moments of what makes championships memorable. Perhaps only the flashes of Musiala and Wirtz, now out of contention, and those of Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams of the Spain that challenges Deschamps’ formula from another conception, which Luis de la Fuente explained yesterday: “Our model and our idea are closer to a beautiful show. I think we are a very attractive team, but here it is about winning.”
An anomaly at the European Championships, where football has veered towards general caution: it has turned out to be the poorest since 1996, with an average of just 1.02 goals per game, as then. France’s performance seems almost cartoonish: they have reached the semi-finals without scoring a single goal in play. The rivals have scored two own goals and Mbappé was successful with a penalty. They are the fifth in the tournament for scoring the fewest (0.6 goals per game), while Spain is the one with the most (2.2).
Although it is also true that it is difficult to expect this to continue. They are the seventh team that generates the best goal chances, 1.3 expected goals (xG) per game, according to the model StatsBomb. But they score half as many. Mbappé, Griezmann and Thuram have accumulated more than one expected goal produced in play without having managed to hit the net. The brand new Real Madrid player is far from his best version, between injuries, the little experience with PSG due to his dispute with Al-Khelaifi to leave and the discomfort of the mask that protects his broken nose from the first game. He will face tonight the 38-year-old Jesús Navas, due to Dani Carvajal’s suspension for cards. “I don’t trust much of what they say. I know that he can make the difference very easily,” said Rodri, who predicted “a physical battle.”
The match is reminiscent of some of the moments that have marked the Spanish national team. In the 1984 Euro final, Arconada let Platini’s free kick slip under his side. In 1992, France prevented Spain from qualifying for the European Championship, the last major tournament it has missed. In 2021, they beat them in the Nations League final.
But perhaps the most decisive moment was the 2006 World Cup, also in Germany, with enormous stylistic consequences. Like what we can see now. After losing in the round of 16, Luis Aragonés was convinced of the change in the squad – elements such as Raúl disappeared – and in the game, built around the characteristics of Xavi, Iniesta, Silva and Fàbregas, later supported by Marcos Senna. The golden period was built on that, and success attracted followers of the style. As Deschamps has attracted them. As perhaps De la Fuente’s Spain.
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