The political joke these days in France is whether the government of the new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, will come first, or rather the dismissal or resignation of the President of the Republic, Emmanuel Macron. The reality is that both are going through great difficulties and the fate of the head of state, who faces a constitutional process to overthrow him and call presidential elections, driven by the radical left of La France Insoumise (LFI), will be linked to Barnier’s success in forming an executive. At least in this first phase, where the new Prime Minister is encountering unexpected resistance. The Brexit negotiations that Barnier carried out for more than two years are on the way to becoming child’s play compared to the task of forming a government in France.
Problems are piling up on the new prime minister’s desk, as his predecessor, Gabriel Attal, had already warned him on the day of the changeover. In addition to the already expected refusal of the left to form part of his government, he has now encountered the reluctance of Ensemble pour la République, Macron’s own party, after hearing his economic plans. Attal, the president of this party, cancelled the meeting he was due to hold in Matignon with Barnier at the last minute on Wednesday morning. “Raising taxes would be terrible for the French,” he warned on the same day. Nobody wants to be part of a measure that will increase the discontent of the citizens.
The relationship between Attal (35 years old) and the conservative Barnier (73) did not start in the best way. Sparks flew on the very day of his appointment, when the new Prime Minister, in a condescending tone, made fun of Attal’s ability to lecture him on his job after only eight months in office. The outgoing head of government, who has already begun to subtly apply for the presidential elections of 2027, endured with a half-smile the sharp comments of the new tenant of Matignon, perhaps until he found an opportunity to respond and assert his 97 deputies, whose support Barnier took for granted. The problem for the new Prime Minister now is that his party, The Republicans (LR), the only one that could support him without conditions or red lines, has hardly any strength (47 deputies). But this group also cancelled the meeting it had with Barnier. In view of the situation, the Prime Minister was to be received last night at the Elysée by Macron.
The main issue is now the tax issue. Speaking to Agence France-Presse on Wednesday, Barnier expressed his concern about France’s finances. This is also a way of paving the way for the austerity measures that he will have to implement urgently in the next budget, which should be discussed at the beginning of October. “The budgetary situation of the country that I am discovering is very serious. I have asked for all the elements to assess its exact reality. This situation deserves more than just small talk. It demands responsibility,” he said. “My objective is to get back on the path of growth and improve the standard of living of the French, already the country with the highest tax burden in the EU,” added the Prime Minister, who said he was “very focused on the upcoming formation of a balanced government” to “methodically and seriously address the challenges” of the country and “thus meet the expectations of the French.”
The nuances surrounding the possible tax increase are not reassuring anyone. And threats continue to come from all sides of the parliamentary spectrum. Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) has already made it known to him through its president, Jordan Bardella, that it will not support him if he raises taxes. Another red line that adds to that of immigration and that will leave little room for Barnier to avoid a vote of no confidence in the coming months. In fact, Le Pen herself said a week ago: “Everyone knows that in June we will vote again,” setting an expiry date for the new Executive and referring to the legal deadline of one year that must be respected to dissolve the Assembly again.
On Monday, a survey by the conservative newspaper The Figaro He pointed out that 44% of French people would like the Assembly to be dissolved next June and to vote again. A worrying fact, given the unprecedented instability in France in recent months and the problems that this brings for the country. Macron observes from the Elysée that his bet to get the country out of the quagmire – first the dissolution of the Assembly in June and now the appointment of Barnier – is not taking off. At the Elysée, those close to the president explain, there is no concern at all about the impeachment process that the Assembly has given the green light to in the last few hours. They believe that it will not be consummated due to a lack of support, but the aesthetic effect is more serious than the real one.
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The image of the President of the Republic, however, has been badly damaged in recent months. The June elections, the result of a controversial and misunderstood dissolution of the National Assembly, left a political landscape fragmented into three blocks. The New Popular Front (NFP), the coalition formed by left-wing parties to counter the rise of the far right, became the largest force in the National Assembly with 193 of 577 deputies, although it was far from the absolute majority of 289. The presidential bloc, made up of three centre and centre-right parties, obtained 166; and the far-right National Rally (RN), 126. Barnier’s difficulties now in forming a government prolong the French crisis and increase the feeling of the end of a cycle.