The European elections in June confirmed that the polls had not been wrong about the rise of the far right in Austria. The Freedom Party (FPÖ) won with a narrow 25.4%, just one point behind the Christian Democrats (ÖVP), but was able to celebrate its first victory at a national level in an election. The FPÖ, which has already participated in several Austrian governments in recent decades, although without leading them, thus added to the rise in the EU of like-minded parties in Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands. Next Sunday it intends to repeat this success in the parliamentary elections in Austria and win them for the first time after almost two years of constantly leading the polls, which now predict around 27% of the vote. The candidate for the post is Herbert Kickl, a leader whose role model, especially on migration policy, is the Hungarian ultra-nationalist Viktor Orbán, a constant headache for Brussels.
The once powerful conservatives are now hot on the heels of the ultras with around 25%. With no absolute majorities expected – which is normal in the Alpine republic – the result will force the parties to negotiate a coalition government. The Socialists, the Greens and the Liberals are also on the list of options.
The FPÖ, eurosceptic and with a very hard stance against immigration and asylum, which it frequently links to crime and terrorism, has managed to recover from the setback of 2019, when it was left with 16.2% after the so-called Ibiza case. The publication of a video recorded with a hidden camera on the Balearic island of the then far-right leader, Heinz-Christian Strache, in which he was caught offering contracts and talking about irregular party financing with a fake Russian oligarch, ended the FPÖ’s participation in the first government of the conservative Sebastian Kurz and its collapse at the polls. With Kickl, the far-right have made progress again, stirring up not only criticism of asylum, but also of the government’s control of the pandemic and pressure to get vaccinated, or measures to combat climate change. The traditional parties – conservatives and socialists of the SPÖ – dominant for decades, have continued to partly erode.
“The question is whether a victory for the FPÖ will really change anything. That would only be the case if it finds a coalition partner who also wants to make Kickl chancellor, which does not seem to be the case at the moment. Its best result was in 1999 (26.9%), which shows that it is not the FPÖ that has improved so much, but the ÖVP and SPÖ that have lost a lot of votes,” says Kathrin Stainer-Hämmerle, a political scientist and professor at the University of Carinthia’s School of Applied Sciences, by telephone. Nevertheless, the FPÖ has managed to position its issues among an electorate dissatisfied with the conservative and green government.
The Greens are calling for a “wall” against the far right, the Socialists and Liberals are also strongly against the aggressive and sharp-tongued Kickl, and Christian Democrat Chancellor Karl Nehammer considers him a “security threat” to the country. However, the ÖVP leader is not completely closing the door on collaboration with the far right, and has repeatedly stated during the campaign that he believes there are “reasonable people” in the party.
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In Austria (about nine million inhabitants) there is no cordon sanitaire as in France or Germany. The far right has been in parliament since shortly after World War II, has councillors in town halls and some mayors, and is now in three regional governments headed by conservatives. At national level, its participation in executives has ended in failure, the last time with Strache and previously with its historic leader Jörg Haider (who died in a traffic accident in 2008), in a pact in 2000 also with the PP that cost the country months of ostracism in an EU then scandalised by the radicalism of the FPÖ and ended with the far right splitting off party.
Austria closes with severe flooding due to storm Boris —which has caused five deaths— a legislature shaken not only by the pandemic, the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and inflation, but also by political scandals and suspicions of corruption that have particularly affected the ÖVP.
The government led by the Austrian Popular Party in coalition with the Greens has had three chancellors in five years. It started in January 2020 with Sebastian Kurz, who was elevated to the post of Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany. Wunderkind (child prodigy in German) of politics due to his youth and rapid rise – he headed his first government at 31 years old – but he had to abruptly end his career and resign in October 2021 under pressure from the Greens after the Public Prosecutor’s Office opened an investigation for corruption against him.
He was replaced by Alexander Schallenberg, who was then Foreign Minister, but the party only held on to him for a few months before making way for Nehammer. The latter has not managed to overcome the continuous decline of recent years and has exhausted a legislative term with several crises with the Greens, who are ideologically at odds but pragmatic when it comes to advancing their environmental agenda as a minority partner. Both are showing signs of wear and tear (the ÖVP would lose more than 12 points and the Greens, six).
“The governing parties are being penalised everywhere. The migration issue, fear of the future, and fatigue with the changes in society create a favourable mood for populist parties,” says Stainer-Hämmerle, “who promise simple solutions and polarise.” “The main problem is that the ÖVP and SPÖ are far from their former ability to retain their voters.” At their peak, both parties were hovering between 30 and 40 percent.
While the conservatives are still awaiting legal proceedings involving Kurz and corruption cases at various levels, the Socialists are still struggling to resolve a leadership crisis that has been going on for years and projects an image of internal stumbling blocks and disunity. Their current leader, Andreas Babler, from the most left-wing sector of the SPÖ, is in third position in the polls, with around 21% of support, a result similar to that of 2019. The Greens are trying to maintain their position as a possible government partner, but are falling to 8% of voting intention, while the liberals of Neos would rise two points to 10% and are openly courting the Christian Democrats to participate in the government for the first time.
With the floods, whose consequences are still affecting many towns and the railway network, the campaign was put on hold until this week, but all the parties have tried to score points with the public. There have been no photos of leaders wearing rain boots in the middle of the disaster, but Nehammer has provided the media with images of himself in crisis cabinets and the announcement of a shower of millions in aid that will strain finances in an economy in recession; the socialist Babler has rolled up his sleeves to help on the streets of Traiskirchen, where he is mayor; and the Greens have taken advantage of the opportunity to put environmental protection and the fight against climate change back on the front burner. Kickl, for his part, dressed in a lumberjack’s shirt, thanked the work of the firefighters and emergency teams in digital broadcasts.
With the poll numbers just days away from the elections, the options are open for a new Executive of the Popular Party and the far right, with the unknown of who will cross the finish line first and the future role of Kickl, who intends to crown himself as Volkskanzler, People’s Chancellor, a term with Nazi overtones. Preventing him from entering a government would require a three-way coalition, with the Popular Party and the Socialists, together with one of the smaller parties, the Greens or Liberals.
