The victory of the far right in Austria, for the first time in legislative elections and with its best historical result, opens a period of suspense and political uncertainty with negotiations to form a Government that are predicted to be complicated and long. The Freedom Party (FPÖ) won with 29.2% of the vote, but its leader, Herbert Kickl, is alone. Nobody wants him to be chancellor. On election night, all parties again rejected collaboration with him due to his radicalism. In response, the ultra leader brandished the “decision” of the voters and even questioned the democratic spirit of his opponents. The electoral results leave several possible coalitions on the table, but a pact may take several months.
Despite the setback suffered by the Christian Democrats (ÖVP), who fell to 26.5% and fell 11 percentage points, the current chancellor, Karl Nehammer, has some cards in his hand to repeat in office and options to negotiate on both sides of the political spectrum. Nehammer was emphatic on Sunday in rejecting Kickl for his “conspiracy theories” and his positions, which have further radicalized the FPÖ in recent years to make it furiously anti-immigration, Eurosceptic and pro-Russian, and which is periodically peppered with complaints of anti-Semitism, xenophobia and proximity to denialism. However, the conservative leader has not completely excluded an agreement with the FPÖ, although this also generates rejection among some of its bases and leaders. Both would reach a clear parliamentary majority (108 seats out of 183), they have governed together before and agree on wanting to toughen immigration policy and on economic issues, while they are separated by their position on the war in Ukraine and the European Union, where the FPÖ has example to the Hungarian Viktor Orbán and is part of the ultra group of Patriots for Europe.
The ÖVP’s claim that Kickl take a step back – as the ultra Geert Wilders has done in the Netherlands to favor a pact or as the historical leader of the Austrian ultras, Jörg Haider, did in 2000 by giving the chancellorship to the conservatives – is It feels difficult after his victory on Sunday. Furthermore, the Christian Democrats would not in principle be the main partner, since they came second in the elections, an unappealing position in the coalition for the ÖVP. Elections are also approaching in several regions, so they prefer not to close doors prematurely, Austrian media highlights party sources. The ultras, meanwhile, insist on their goal of making Kickl Volkskanzerchancellor of the people (a title used by the Nazis), and this Monday they prepared their negotiating team with the program that their leader has defended to turn Austria into a “fortress” against migrants ahead.
To claim a chancellorship under Nehammer from second place at the polls, the ÖVP is now looking in the direction of the social democratic SPÖ, which with 21% has recorded its worst result by tenths. It is striking that for the first time since World War II, the large traditional parties of Austria, which alternated in power for decades, do not exceed 50% of the votes (they reach 47.5%), but in the distribution of seats add up to 92 deputies, a scratched majority (in the absence of counting the last votes by mail, which can still make some seats dance). Although the socialist leader, Andreas Babler, did not close himself to the conservatives, in his party the waters are murky, with some important leaders who consider that there is no mandate to enter a Government and others who are betting on a negotiation. It would not be easy: the two formations have been estranged for some time after the popular Sebastian Kurz decided in 2017 to dispense with the grand coalition model to let the ultras enter his Executive, including Kickl, as Minister of the Interior.
The Social Democrats held their board meeting this Monday — the rest of the parties plan to do so in the coming days to also analyze the turn of voters towards the ultras, which have climbed 13 points after the decline in 2019, marked by suspicions of corruption in around its previous leader, Heinz-Christian Strache. In an appearance after the meeting, Babler explained that they have created a team for exploratory talks, but that this does not imply that they will necessarily enter into negotiations.
The game looks complicated. “Kickl has to decide whether to retire, perhaps to a position like Speaker of Parliament, and leave the path clear. But something similar applies to the SPÖ. Babler is also not Nehammer’s favorite negotiator. Although [el líder del ÖVP] In the end he will have to bite the bullet, and then he is more likely to try the SPÖ,” says Kathrin Stainer-Hämmerle, a political scientist and professor at the University of Carinthia’s Higher School of Applied Sciences, by phone. “We must remember that a negotiation like this, between ÖVP and SPÖ, failed after the regional elections in Lower Austria [en 2023]and then the question can be raised whether the second option with the FPÖ does not come into play again,” he adds.
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Tripartite
Given the tightness of a hypothetical grand coalition, the scenario of a tripartite is gaining strength, which would be a novelty in Austria. In that case, the most likely candidate to join the conservatives and social democrats are the liberals of Neos (9%), led by the only woman in charge of a national party, Beate Meinl-Reisinger, who already in the campaign made it clear that she wants enter a Government that avoids the ultras, but above all to promote reforms to recover the economy. “I don’t want him in an Executive, I don’t think he is good for the country,” he told Kickl on election night.
Werner Kogler’s Greens (8% after falling five points) are also a possibility as a minority partner. They have just closed a five-year term with the ÖVP, but above all the final stretch has led to a great distance between the two parties. They are not now the favorites among conservatives.
With these options open, talks for a government agreement are expected to be difficult. Austria takes an average of two months to close coalitions, which are common in the country, but ÖVP and the Greens took a hundred days to agree on the joint program in 2019.
Finding a way out “may take some time, but it is time well spent,” said Sunday the country’s president, the progressive Alexander Van der Bellen, whose power is to swear in the future chancellor and ministers. Last year, already confirmed for a second term, he declared, in reference to the FPÖ, that he would not like to favor a party that is “anti-European and does not condemn Russia’s war in Ukraine.” He also warned that winning an election does not automatically imply that the winner is in charge of forming a Government. It is tradition, but not a legal norm. Kickl harshly criticized these statements by the president and at some point called him a “mummy” and “senile.”
Van der Bellen will begin a round of interviews with political leaders this week to explore “what viable compromises could be reached.” The president clearly stated what he expects: “I will ensure that the cornerstones of our liberal democracy are respected when forming a Government, such as the rule of law, the separation of powers, human and minority rights, independence of the media and membership of the EU”.
