Mr. Ted Osius, President and CEO, US-ASEAN Business Council
What awaits ASEAN-US relations in 2025?
“The importance of ASEAN is expected to be increasingly enhanced in the context of Southeast Asia becoming the fastest growing trade region in the world, thereby providing opportunities to deepen ASEAN-US economic relations.” “, said Chairman Ted Osius, former US Ambassador to Vietnam for the 2014-2017 term.
According to Mr. Osius, America’s commitment is fueled through mechanisms that help align national priorities with larger regional goals, based on frameworks such as the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC). .
On the other hand, as both ASEAN and the US are going through leadership changes and resulting policy shifts, the USABC President believes that bilateral relations may face a degree of uncertainty and difficulty. guess. “In 2024, the United States is paying a lot of attention to Ukraine and the Middle East, and is likely to maintain this attention in the first year of the next Donald Trump administration. I hope to maintain the scope of our war commitment.” Strategies like the current level between the US and ASEAN are also given high priority,” according to Mr. Osius.
Challenges – opportunities for ASEAN-US economic relations in 2025?
Commenting on 2025, Mr. Osius said there are still strong opportunities to strengthen ASEAN-US economic relations, as ASEAN becomes more and more important in the global economy. ASEAN has the world’s third largest population and the fifth largest global economy.
“ASEAN’s GDP is expected to grow by 4.4% per year from 2023 to 2028, becoming a fast-growing economy second only to India. Such impressive growth will provide many opportunities to enhance business and investment between ASEAN and the US. US companies continue to view ASEAN as a strategic market, demonstrated by increased investment in financial services, digital economy, energy, healthcare, logistics and infrastructure”, according to people heads the organization representing 180 of the largest US business companies in Southeast Asia.
However, he also warned that with the trend of protectionism on the rise in the US, countries with significant trade surpluses with the US – such as Vietnam, Malaysia, Thailand and possibly Indonesia – may face more scrutiny from the US after Mr. Trump returns to the White House from January 20. This attitude could have an impact on the region’s business dynamics.
According to the USABC President, the importance of ASEAN should be considered on a broader scale, not just through the lens of trade imbalance. USABC has just released a report titled “ASEAN Matters for America/America Matters for ASEAN”, which emphasizes the important role of “strong and dynamic ASEAN-US relations on the global level”.
According to the report, ASEAN’s business and investment activities support more than 625,000 jobs across the United States. Seventeen of the 50 states with more than 10,000 jobs rely on exports to ASEAN. As the leading voice of America’s private sector, USABC advances the mutually beneficial trade and investment relationship between the United States and ASEAN, while elevating the importance of bilateral economic relations.
US election site in Washington DC on November 5, 2024
Vietnam’s role in promoting the ASEAN-US Strategic Partnership?
The former US Ambassador to Vietnam assessed that, together with Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore, Vietnam can continue to take on an active role in promoting the implementation of the ASEAN-US Strategic Partnership. (CSP) in 2025.
According to Mr. Osius, as a comprehensive strategic partner with the US, Vietnam has the advantage to strengthen the ASEAN-US partnership across key areas: from political cooperation to security, from economics to economics. people relations. And as an active member of ASEAN, Vietnam can also deepen cooperation in existing areas of relations between the bloc and the US, such as business, digital, cybersecurity, energy, healthcare and life sciences, financial services, artificial intelligence, resilient supply chains.
In addition, the former diplomat also believes that Vietnam and, by extension, ASEAN policymakers can focus on strengthening outreach and enhancing dialogue with American colleagues, from the congressional level. , governor to local officials, as well as strengthening ties with the American business community.
The USABC President also said that ASEAN should make more efforts to balance trade relations with Washington, such as finding ways to reduce the trade surplus and increase imports of goods and services from the US.
According to Mr. Osius, by taking these proactive steps, Vietnam and ASEAN can better prepare for potential policy changes under the Trump administration, thereby positioning ASEAN as a unified economic bloc. , strong, capable of effectively cooperating with the US while protecting the bloc’s own interests.
Prioritize Vietnam-US cooperation in 2025
Former US Ambassador Osius said that based on the solid foundation of bilateral trust and understanding over the past 30 years, the US and Vietnam should continue to strengthen cooperation to effectively implement the Vietnam-US Joint Declaration of 2019. 2023.
According to Mr. Osius, “the two sides should prioritize high-level delegation exchanges and strengthen cooperation in the field of science and technology, including semiconductors, quantum computing, and biotechnology.” and artificial intelligence. Besides, developing high-quality human resources can create a strategic breakthrough in bilateral relations.”
Opportunities under the Trump administration
Immediately after the results of the 2024 US presidential election were announced with the victory of Mr. Donald Trump, experts all said that one of the bright spots under the Trump administration is that the trade prospects may be better. “I think for countries interested in trade deals, the incoming Trump administration will offer better prospects for closing these deals,” said Ms. Wendy Cutler, Vice President and General Director of the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), Washington DC headquarters
Ms. Cutler pointed out that President-elect Trump in his first term pursued trade agreements and completed a number of notable agreements such as the US-Mexico-Canada Trade Agreement and the US-Japan Trade Agreement. In addition, Mr. Trump’s team also focuses on efforts to diversify US supply chains to reduce dependence on China. “Therefore, for Asian trading partners, I think this will bring many opportunities,” the ASPI leader commented, especially in the context that the US continues to look to Asia to diversify its trading partners. its supply chain.
