Some reports on ASEAN-US relations
The topic of the 2024 US election occupied the focus of discussions between Biden-Harris administration officials, scholars, independent experts and ASEAN journalists participating in the program reporting on ASEAN-economic cooperation activities. America. The program is organized by the US Mission to ASEAN (Indonesia headquarters) in coordination with the East-West Center (Hawaii headquarters) in late October and early November.
These exchanges responded to the interest of the ASEAN press in particular and each ASEAN member country in general in the 2024 US election results.
Uncertainty and continuity
One of the questions raised in the discussions always focuses on the need to analyze the US election situation between bipartisan presidential candidates, as well as the potential impact on each ASEAN country and the entire bloc in the event of a pandemic. Republican or Democratic candidates won the election on November 5.
At a meeting, Dr. Satu Limaye, Director of the Washington Office of the East-West Center and Vice President of the center, mentioned the report titled “Asia overcoming uncertainty and policy continuity.” US on the region in the context of the 2024 election”. ASEAN is an important part of common policy in the region.
According to the report, the “uncertainty” that Asia feels stems from many different factors, and the level of strength and weakness fluctuates according to each specific country. For example, the Philippines is considered to be among the countries most worried about serious consequences if the new administration in the US reduces its support.
In addition, uncertainty also comes from the feeling of not having reliable information about US political dynamics, including foreign policy and world economic relations. As a result, ASEAN countries really have difficulty in coming up with effective measures to respond to emerging trends in US policy, not to mention the unpredictable surprises that may arise.
The report cites several specific examples of uncertainty, such as the controversy between the two candidates over the Washington administration’s position on Ukraine, and the growing protectionism within both political parties. Republican and Democratic.
In contrast, the theme of “continuity” refers to the fact that many Asian countries, including ASEAN members, worked with Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump during his first term (2017- 2021) and the Biden-Harris administration through visits by Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate.
American voters go to the polls in Washington DC on November 5
Therefore, ASEAN countries somewhat feel confident when handling relations with the US regardless of the winner. They also analyzed that while there are many surprises, especially in the event of Mr. Trump’s election, some key aspects of US policy are still predictable.
For example, strategic competition continues to exist between the US and China, and Washington will constantly take measures to respond to challenges from Beijing.
Thus, a key challenge facing much of Asia is how to adapt and handle continuity in US policy during the government transition process.
In this context, most regional countries maintain close relations with the US Congress, as well as relations with foreign and defense policy-making agencies in Washington.
Based on existing relationships, Asian governments somehow feel they can still respond in time to unexpected changes from the upcoming US administration.
What is the US missing in ASEAN?
In a subsequent meeting with Mr. Andreyka Natalegawa, Southeast Asia Program expert of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS, Washington DC headquarters), he commented that Southeast Asia is receiving more attention than ever. now from the current administration in Washington. However, the level of awareness and understanding of the region is still not met.
Wen Andreyka Natalegawa, Southeast Asia Program expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies
Organizations like CSIS are trying to narrow the gap and offer effective measures to promote ASEAN-US relations. According to Natalegawa, all of this is happening in the context of a number of important geostrategic changes, such as the growing competition between the US and China in the region.
Dr. Zack Cooper, senior expert at the American Enterprise Institute (AEI, Washington DC headquarters), also said that the US is having difficulty finding ways to cooperate effectively with Southeast Asia.
Dr. Zack Cooper, senior expert of the American Enterprise Institute
According to AEI experts, compared to ASEAN, the US is putting more effort into the Quad, G7, and AUKUS groups (UK-US-Australia security agreement). Therefore, he expressed concern when remarking that so far the Washington government still has no clear institutional cooperation plan with ASEAN.
However, Dr. Cooper commented that America’s involvement in Southeast Asia will not fundamentally change regardless of which side wins on election day November 5.
