Another spring ends, the third already, and the weapons have decided nothing. After Putin’s initial failure in the blitzkrieg and Ukraine’s recovery of half of its lost territories, little has moved. Except for minimal Russian advances, thanks to the Ukrainian shortage of weapons and ammunition, the firing line has been stabilized for almost two years.
At the end there is always a table where the enemies sit. And it can only be capitulation or negotiation, when one of the two parties or both at the same time have exhausted the military and moral forces to continue. The one in Ukraine does not look like it will be resolved exclusively with fire and blood, but rather in the most intricate and vast scenario on the world map, where Putin forms anti-Western alliances, buys howitzers and sells gas and oil.
If time seems suspended in the mud of the trenches, in the vast international spaces it is measured by the appointment of November 5, when the citizens of the United States will decide whether to take Donald Trump back to the White House. Committed to ending the war within 24 hours, his dislike of NATO and his sympathies for authoritarian leaders and their landslide electoral victories are well known. If he wins the presidency, Zelensky will only be able to rely on the Europeans to continue the war and avoid capitulation. He remains to see that the 27 alone and a NATO weakened by a Trumpist White House have done all their homework then and are enough to stop Putin.
They are not the only elections of strategic value. Although Putin has not benefited directly from the European elections, the call to the polls in France has opened another window of opportunity for the Kremlin. The only EU power with a nuclear weapon and the right to veto in the Security Council, also the most militarily committed to Ukraine, risks having a Government with Putinist affinities as of July 7. Whatever the result, Emmanuel Macron, the most martial and supportive of Zelensky of the European leaders, will be weakened.
Anything that contributes to Biden’s defeat serves Putin’s strategy. Hence, the war in Ukraine is intertwined with the war in Gaza, as are the interests of Putin and Netanyahu. A Trumpist White House will have no qualms with the Palestinians. The more weapons and ammunition Israel receives, the less there will be for Ukraine. If Putin is isolated, Netanyahu is even more so. And more evident is Washington’s double standard, which facilitates the so-called Global South with its equidistance from Ukraine, its denunciation of Israel and its discreet but profitable relationship with Russia. Everything perfect for Putin. Like Netanyahu, peace does not interest him and he is better off with a long war, one that extends to Lebanon and beyond the summer, at least until the elections in the United States.
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