A former astronaut like Senator Mark Kelly or a former high school teacher like Minnesota Governor Tim Walz? An excellent communicator like Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg or an expert at winning his home state like Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro? US Vice President Kamala Harris is about to announce who will be her running mate on the Democratic ticket for the November elections. One of the most important decisions in her campaign: her selection will say a lot about what her governing strategy will be, if she wins; but, above all, it will say a lot about what her strategy will be to win.
Typically, a presidential candidate looks for a running mate who complements him. Either because he can boost him in a swing state necessary to win the election, such as Pennsylvania; or because his ideological leanings balance possible biases — real or perceived — of the number one on the ticket; or because he enjoys special appeal in a key sector of the population. Or because he reinforces one of the main candidate’s strengths.
Thus, Barack Obama, then a newly minted senator, selected Joe Biden in 2008 to bring him experience in the corridors of power. Veteran John McCain also then opted for Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, with the idea of injecting youth and dynamism into a campaign perceived as excessively traditional and rigid. In 2016, Donald Trump opted for the very religious Michael Pence to attract the votes of the evangelical community, then very skeptical of him.
This weekend, Harris is putting the finishing touches on a decision she had to make in a hurry after replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee just two weeks ago. In keeping with that idea of seeking balance, all of the finalists for the first black female presidential candidate are white men.
The law firm Covington and Burling, headed by former Attorney General Eric Holder under Barack Obama, has already submitted its reports, and has been investigating the finalists against the clock to rule out possible skeletons in their closets. The vice president still has a final round of interviews planned with the candidates before announcing her final decision in the coming days.
On Tuesday he will appear with his chosen candidate in Philadelphia (Pennsylvania) for a mass rally, at the start of a tour of five key states with which he seeks to maintain the momentum of his campaign until the Democratic Party convention, which will open on the 19th in Chicago.
Knowing what’s happening outside means understanding what’s going to happen inside, so don’t miss anything.
KEEP READING
The polls, which a couple of weeks ago were listing a dozen names, have narrowed down to just a handful of finalists. All of them include the governor of Pennsylvania. The fact that the electoral tour begins in Philadelphia has fueled the rumors about him. And in a step that has given even more fuel to the speculation, Shapiro has cancelled some of the events he had planned for this weekend. On Friday, at a state legislation signing, the politician avoided answering the avalanche of questions from journalists about his possible selection. “I’m not going to answer those kinds of hypothetical questions,” he insisted.
As a candidate, Shapiro, 51, offers several advantages. Pennsylvania is the key swing state for Democrats. By all accounts, its 19 electoral votes are essential to staying in the White House. And the governor can help swing it his way. He won his post by a clear majority in the 2022 midterm elections, and polls give him a popularity rating of around 60%. An almost Olympian level, given the sharp political polarization in the United States. Even more remarkably, 42% of Republican voters in Pennsylvania give him their approval.
His supporters point to his accomplishments as state attorney general, his centrist tendencies and his effectiveness in promoting Harris’s campaign. Some, like a major Democratic donor who spoke to NBC, consider him an “Obama-level political talent” who can re-engage disenchanted Democratic voters and interest independents.
Others point to the negative factors on their list of factors that the governor, a practicing Jew, could alienate the progressive and pro-Palestinian wing of the Democrats due to his pro-Israel stance on the Gaza war: he has criticized university protests demanding a ceasefire and since the beginning of the war he has been one of the most publicly supportive politicians of Israel, where he lived for a few months during his university years. He is also criticized for his handling of sexual abuse allegations against one of his legislative advisers.
Another name that appears on all the lists is Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, 60. A man with a personal story that reads like a Hollywood script. Not only a pilot and war veteran, but also an astronaut. He entered politics almost out of obligation: his wife, Gabby Giffords, was a prominent congresswoman who was rumored to even make it to the White House… until a shooter shot her in the head while she was holding a rally in 2011. Giffords survived, although the serious after-effects of the attack forced her to leave politics. Her husband took up the baton. Both are now prominent anti-firearms activists. He has won elections twice in four years in a swing state that is also key to Democratic aspirations.
As a senator from a border state and a hawk on immigration policy, Kelly, also from the moderate wing of the party, would strengthen Harris against one of the main lines of Republican attack. Against her is the fact that party strategists may not want to risk vacating her seat in a Senate that Democrats control by a slim margin (although if she were to run for vice president, the Democratic governor of Arizona would name a temporary replacement; local legislation would require special elections to fill the vacancy in 2026).
A candidate who was not on the first lists
Someone who was not initially in the running but has established himself thanks to viral comments on television and social media is the governor of Minnesota, Tim Walz, 60 years old. His is the epithet with which the Democratic campaign now defines the Republican candidates: “they are weird.” This former high school teacher, also very popular in his state, could attract voters in the so-called “Blue Wall” of Democratic-leaning states in the industrial north of the United States: Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. More progressive than Shapiro or Kelly, he is the candidate with the most legislative experience. He has a long list of contacts in Congress, where he held a seat for twelve years. This could help Harris, whose experience as a senator was not long.
But Walz is relatively unknown outside his home state, a state that Democrats already consider to be on their side and one in which they do not need to make any effort to win. Against him is the biggest case of fraud during the pandemic, which occurred in Minnesota with him in office. Or the delay in sending the National Guard to the serious protests in Minneapolis after the death of the black citizen George Floyd at the hands of police in May 2020.
The lists also consider the names of Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, at 42 years old, vice presidential candidate The youngest on the list. The former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who would be the first openly gay vice-presidential candidate, has an enviable ability as a communicator to his credit: in the last 15 days he has multiplied his appearances in the media as a representative of Harris’ campaign. Against him is his relative lack of experience in electoral campaigns: at the federal level he has only competed in the 2020 presidential elections.
Billionaire Illinois governor JB Pritzker is also in the running, although he is further ahead of the rest. Other candidates who were on the initial lists, such as North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, have ruled themselves out.
Whoever is chosen will have to get moving quickly. There are just over 90 days left before the November 5 election. It is conventional wisdom that a vice president rarely makes a difference in a US presidential election. But this 2024 campaign is anything but conventional. And so tight that any factor can make a difference.
Follow all the information on the US elections atour weekly newsletter.
