When the Maghreb chessboard shakes, some pieces are in danger of falling. In an unusual preventive move, the Algerian government claims to have been informed by French diplomacy that it is preparing to give “explicit support to the autonomy plan for the territory of Western Sahara within the supposed sovereignty of Morocco.” An official note from the Algerian Foreign Ministry released on Thursday evening warns France that it “will have to face the consequences of the decision” and attributes to it “full responsibility.”
The statement has not yet received a response from the French or Moroccan authorities. Paris and Rabat remain silent in the face of a possible French turn, following the steps taken by Spain two years ago, in favour of the theses of the Maghreb country. France has supported the autonomy plan for the Sahara since 2007, as “a solution [entre otras] to the conflict”, but Morocco has long been calling on it to adopt the formula expressed in 2022 by the President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, in a letter addressed to King Mohammed VI, unequivocally presenting the Moroccan proposal as “the most serious, realistic and credible basis for resolving this dispute”.
In a statement that is far removed from diplomatic practice of reacting to faits accomplis, Algeria has lashed out against an “unexpected decision” that has not yet been publicly announced. It calls it typical of “colonial powers” and particularly serious as it affects a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The Algerian government believes that France has been rendered incapable of mediating in the Sahara conflict by the diplomatic about-face that it claims has been notified of.
Despite the silence of France and Morocco, Algeria has continued to shake up the diplomatic chessboard in the Maghreb. In a television appearance on Friday evening, the Minister of Trade, Tayeb Zituni, announced that his country is open to “progress” in the normalisation of trade relations with Spain, frozen since 2022 (except for the export of Algerian natural gas), following the suspension of the Friendship Treaty with Spain in retaliation for the turn in favour of Morocco on the Sahara issue.
Algiers, which broke diplomatic relations with Morocco in 2021, supports the position of the Polisario Front, which advocates holding a self-determination referendum to achieve independence. Since 1975, when Spain abandoned its former colony of Western Sahara and ceded control of the territory to the Moroccan authorities, the leadership of the independence movement has been granted asylum along with tens of thousands of refugees in Tindouf (southwest Algeria). The Polisario has also condemned the change in its “hostile” position taken by France, and warns that it could have “serious consequences for peace, security and stability” in the Maghreb.
The Algerian Ministry of Commerce has now announced the upcoming export of 150,000 tonnes of iron to Spain through the company Tosyali, reports the Efe agency. This step follows the appointment of a new Algerian ambassador in Madrid at the end of 2023, and the resumption of air links between the two countries and some Spanish food exports. It also announces the collaboration of the Algerian Association of Banks and Financial Institutions to facilitate bilateral trade, which is effectively blocked by the ban on bank transfers between the two countries. Minister Zituni also praised Spain’s “courageous” decision to recognise the State of Palestine in his television appearance.
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Gas exports have played an essential role in the bilateral relationship with Algeria for decades. Almost 30% of the gas consumed in 2023 came from the North African country, the only producer from where fuel arrives via a gas pipeline, directly connected to the Spanish coast in Almería. In 2021, the Algerian authorities closed the other pipeline that carried this fuel to the Peninsula, the one that crosses the Strait from Morocco.
Spanish exports to Algeria plummeted at the start of the diplomatic crisis. In 2023, they were worth around 300 million euros, compared to 2.9 billion in 2019, before the pandemic. In contrast, imports – based mainly on gas sales – rose to around 5.8 billion euros, compared to 3.8 billion in 2019, due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Waiting for Mohamed VI’s speech
Meanwhile, the Moroccan press reported on Sunday that the content of the new French position on the Sahara would be revealed during a speech by King Mohammed VI, announced on Monday on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of his accession to the throne, presumably through a letter from the French president in which his country declares its willingness to align itself with the position adopted by Spain in 2022.
French diplomatic experts quoted by the newspaper The WorldThey believe, however, that Macron is unlikely to make a major diplomatic announcement in the midst of the Olympic Games in Paris and with a caretaker government following the recent legislative elections. They also consider that the most appropriate occasion to formalise a change of direction on the Sahara should coincide with an official visit by Macron to Morocco, in order to seal reconciliation after nearly two years of disagreements. In conclusion, this is one more of the cycles of ups and downs that characterise relations with France and Spain, the two former colonial powers of the Maghreb country and its main economic partners. The same sources believe that Paris would have warned Algiers in time of its intentions in order to try to avoid the same consequences as Spain in 2022.
The thaw between Morocco and France began with a visit by the three sisters of the King of Morocco to the Elysée Palace, where they were invited in February by the president’s wife, Brigitte Macron. Shortly afterwards, French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné travelled to Rabat to reiterate his country’s support for the autonomy plan for the Sahara and “to move it forward, as a matter of existential importance for Morocco”. He also gave the green light to the presence of French companies in the territory of the former Spanish colony, where the Moroccan government is concentrating large investments.
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