The debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump is expected to be the next big event in the US presidential election campaign. It is scheduled for September 10 at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the most important state in the November 5 election. With two weeks to go, however, there are still doubts about whether the debate will take place. A row over microphones between the campaigns and Trump’s complaints about the direction of the network put it at risk.
The campaign of Democrat Kamala Harris does not want the microphone of the candidate who does not have the right to speak to be muted. That was one of the rules agreed upon for the CNN debate on June 27. Initially, the idea was to avoid the constant interruptions by Trump, which at times turned the 2020 debates against Joe Biden into a cage of crickets. The measure was adopted at the request of the Biden campaign, but ended up benefiting his rival, as it made him seem more restrained and moderate. On the other hand, the absence of interruptions did not prevent Biden from sinking alone in a disastrous performance.
Now, Harris’s campaign believes its candidate can benefit from a more lively exchange and has asked that microphones be kept on. Trump’s campaign, by contrast, wants to keep them off in shifts, as in the Atlanta debate, arguing that the same rules had been agreed upon for both debates. Those rules also include no live audience.
“Trump’s handlers prefer the microphone muted because they don’t believe their candidate can act like a president for 90 minutes on his own,” Harris campaign spokesman Brian Fallon said in a statement. “She is prepared to deal with Trump’s constant lies and interruptions in real time. Trump should stop hiding behind the mute button.”
The former president himself answered questions about the debate at a campaign stop in Falls Church, Virginia, on the outskirts of Washington on Monday. “Now, all of a sudden, they want to change the rules because she can’t answer questions. Why isn’t she doing what I’m doing right now?” he said, referring to the fact that Harris has not given any interviews or press conferences since she was nominated as her party’s candidate.
“We agreed to the same rules, I don’t know, I don’t care, probably, I’d rather have it on, but the agreement was that it would be the same as last time. I didn’t like it last time, but it worked out well,” he explained afterwards. Asked how he was preparing for the debate, Trump replied: “I’m not. I think I’ve been preparing for a debate my whole life.”
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Disagreements and tensions over the rules of debates are common in campaigns and it would be surprising if such a detail ended up frustrating a meeting that is presumed to be decisive in the presidential race, unless one of the two candidates wants to use it as an excuse to break the deck.
On Sunday, via his network, Truth Social, he raised the possibility of not attending the debate, alleging that ABC is biased against him: “Why would I do the debate against Kamala Harris on that network?” he wrote, explaining that it was his reaction after having seen a discussion of supposed “Trump haters” on the channel. “Why did Harris reject Fox, NBC, CBS and even CNN? Stay tuned!” he added in his post.
He was also asked about this on Monday and said he would prefer to do the debate on NBC or CBS. “When I saw the hostility, I said: ‘Why am I doing it? Let’s do it on another network,’” he replied, casting doubt on his participation. It is also unclear whether, if it is held, the one on September 10 will be the only debate or there will be another one in October.
Tied polls
For now, the situation between the two candidates is practically a technical tie. Kamala Harris has a 3.4-point lead in the popular vote polls, according to the weighted average of FiveThirtyEight, a poll aggregator, where the Democrat surpassed her rival a month ago. Different aggregators give the candidate between 1.5 and 4 points of advantage over Trump, although there have hardly been any polls yet that reflect voting intention after the triumphant Democratic convention last week.
The presidency, however, is not decided by popular vote, but by the Electoral College, in which states have a number of votes equivalent to their representation in Congress. The vast majority of states have a clear inclination for one candidate or the other, so in practice the elections are played out in a handful of decisive states: Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada and Arizona. And, again, the polls are also very close.
According to the averages that he calculates The New York Times, Harris is two points ahead in Michigan and Wisconsin; the two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania and Arizona, and Trump is four points ahead in Georgia. Harris would only need to retain Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania in Democratic hands to become president.
Quotes on prediction markets such as Polymarket give Trump a 50% chance and Harris a 49% chance. The cards are up in the air, and that increases the relevance of the debate.
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