A relieved France faces an unprecedented challenge after the elections: forming a coalition government

And now what? After the relief of having stopped the victory of the far right in France on Sunday, relegating it to an unexpected third place, the French woke up on Monday wondering who will form the new government that will run the country’s daily affairs. And when that cabinet will be ready. Questions that even the political leaders themselves cannot answer at the moment, given the unprecedented panorama of almost equal forces – with an insufficient advantage for the left on its own – that has resulted from the legislative elections and that leads to a coalition government without precedent in the recent history of the country.

Outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal resigned on Monday morning, as he announced on Sunday evening after learning the results. But as expected, President Emmanuel Macron has asked him to stay “for the moment” to “ensure the stability of the country,” the Elysée confirmed.

On Sunday evening, Macron, who is due to attend the NATO summit in Washington this week – where he will meet with a large number of European leaders who have been closely following the unprecedented situation in France – had already said that he would not rush things. “In accordance with republican tradition, he will wait for the new National Assembly to be structured before taking the necessary decisions,” the Elysée announced.

Although this decision will buy everyone time, the outlook remains complicated in a country with no tradition of governing in coalition, as is the case in other countries such as Germany, whose example is now being analysed in detail in many offices in Paris.

The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) has confirmed itself as the most voted party with 182 deputies, a result that no one expected, but which will not allow it to govern alone. Even the Macronist parties, despite having saved face with 168 deputies, cannot aspire to form a government individually again, not even if they manage to convince the conservatives of the Republicans (LR) to unite their 45 deputies to their project.

The only thing that is clear is that if the left wants to govern – and its leaders have already declared that they expect Macron to be the first to call them to ask them to propose a name for prime minister – it will need at least some of Macronism.

The centrist bloc has also made it clear that it will not accept a coalition that includes the radical left of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party, France Insoumise (LFI), a party that in turn rules out any alliance beyond the NFP and insists that its programme must be applied without changes. A programme described during the campaign as “extremist” and “dangerous” by Macronism, which flatly rejects demands from the left such as raising the minimum wage to 1,600 euros, reimposing high taxes on the richest or repealing the pension reform that Macron’s government had to impose by decree after months of street protests.

Uncertainty

Even the choice of a name agreed upon by the left as head of government is predicted to be complex: although the results of Sunday’s legislative elections have confirmed the “rebalancing” of forces within the left, with the Socialist Party doubling its seats to 68, LFI remains the party with the most deputies, up to 79. Something that makes it difficult for the rest of the NFP, even though together they have more seats than the rebels, to ignore that party. “Those who explain to us that they want to form a majority without LFI have not had the same mathematics teachers as I have. I don’t see how that would be possible,” said the leader of the ecologists, Marine Tondelier.

Throughout the campaign, the question of who would be proposed as prime minister if the left won was postponed until after the election. The moment has arrived and there is still no clarity.

Both the leader of the Socialist Party, Olivier Faure, and Tondelier have indicated in interviews on Monday that they will try to propose a name “this week”. According to the environmentalist, the leaders of the NFP have already met twice last night and will continue their meetings today. Even so, she has acknowledged that “it will not be easy” to agree on a name.

Despite the firm rejection throughout the campaign by the other parties in the alliance (PS, the ecologists and the Communist Party) of the idea that Mélenchon be proposed as prime minister, the rebel MP Mathilde Panot has stirred up internal waters again by stating that the leader of LFI “is not at all disqualified” for the post. The top leaders of the other parties have insisted that a “consensus” figure is needed who “can dialogue with the outside”, characteristics that Mélenchon does not possess. “He is not the leader of the NFP”, also concluded Yannick Jadot, senator and former leader of the ecologists, who has had a strong influence in his party until today. His successor Tondelier has indicated for her part that the person chosen can come from the ranks of the allied parties as well as “someone from outside”, even a personality from civil society. The game has only just begun.

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