Three years after the effective divorce from the EU, the British are once again setting their sights on Brussels. A survey published this Thursday by the analysis center European Center for Foreign Relations (ECFR) concludes that half of British citizens consider that their country should give priority to relations with its European neighbors, compared to a 17% who consider that it is better to focus on the United States and 18% who reject both options. This survey, which was carried out after Donald Trump’s victory, also shows that 68% of Britons – including 54% of Brexit voters – would like to improve their access to the European market, even if this means giving in to old lines. red flags of Brexit, such as free movement.
The survey, focused on these issues, as well as security issues, has also been carried out in France, Germany, Italy, Poland and Spain (in total, 9,000 interviews). In these countries, the feeling of closeness with former community partners is shared. Respondents in all five EU countries would be willing to give London “special access to the single market” in exchange for closer security cooperation. Russia’s war in Ukraine has raised alarms about the continent’s defensive capacity, which is why Brussels is counting on improving it with the United Kingdom. In the background, too, are President-elect Trump’s criticism of NATO and his sympathy for Putin.
“It is not so much public opinions that have changed, but the context in which the United Kingdom and European countries shape their relations,” says Pawel Zerka, an analyst at ECFR. Indeed, the geopolitical context is different from that of 2016, when the British voted in favor of leaving the bloc. In addition to the re-election of the Republican candidate in the United States, the atmosphere is marked by the armed conflict in Europe, Israel’s war in Gaza, and the rise of China.
The return of Labor to power has also increased the climate of uncertainty among the British. According to the survey, the Twenty-seven are the hope of 50% of those asked to boost the island’s economy. Faced with this option, Zerka believes that the possibility opens up that Trump could “offer the United Kingdom economic access to the American market in exchange for the promise that it will not join Europe.”
Along these lines, the expert points out that Trump will prefer to deal with the bloc’s countries separately, and “could play with the United Kingdom to divide the EU in various aspects, such as the war in Ukraine or in relation to China.” But nearly half of the British consider that their Government should not follow the Republican one if it forced Ukraine to accept concessions to Moscow to end the war; a figure that is lower in European countries – around 38% in Spain, Germany, Poland and France. In any case, the reluctance to the Republican’s position regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine is the majority. The exception is Italy, where respondents are evenly divided (29%) on whether or not to follow the American position.
On the European side, security cooperation with London is of special interest among countries close to Russia. Poland, for example, is the country where the largest number of respondents – 54% – support an eventual agreement with the British in this regard. However, Zerka emphasizes that the answer “is not black and white.” Poles, like many Europeans, consider it important to have the support of both the United States and the United Kingdom in terms of security. However, this does not translate into following Donald Trump’s leadership in international politics.
“The current window of opportunity in terms of alignment between the Europeans and the British may be a short opportunity and therefore increases the importance of using it wisely,” concludes the analyst. Trump will take office on January 20 and if he makes “a really good offer, the leaders of Great Britain or some leaders of Europe will be tempted to follow him.”
