A disastrous week for Justin Trudeau

The ruling party in Canada, like the Democrats in the United States, is no longer so sure that its best bet for the next election is the current head of the executive. For several months, the Canadian Conservatives have been leading the polls ahead of the elections scheduled for 2025. The polls also reflect a sharp decline in Justin Trudeau’s popularity. However, what happened last week in a constituency in Ontario has shown that the Liberals’ poor showing is no longer reflected only in percentages among citizens surveyed, but also in votes at the polls.

In the early hours of last Tuesday, electoral authorities declared Don Stewart, candidate of the Conservative Party of Canada, the winner in the Toronto-St Paul’s constituency. Stewart won over liberal Leslie Church by a margin of 1.6%. This special election was held because Rep. Carolyn Bennett vacated her seat in January. A few months later, she became the Canadian ambassador to Denmark. The results of the vote generated a wave of reactions in the media and political corridors, since the constituency had been a liberal bastion for 31 years.

On the same day that the Conservative victory was announced, Trudeau admitted that the vote had not produced the expected results. “But I want to make it clear that I hear people’s concerns and frustrations,” he said at an event in Vancouver. However, Trudeau again stressed that he will seek a fourth term in the 2025 elections. He also said that the Liberal government has a lot of work to do, although citizens must choose between the future and the voices that allude to policies of the past, in clear reference to the Conservatives.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party of Canada, spread a message on social networks after his candidate’s victory: “Here is the verdict: Justin Trudeau cannot continue. He must now call elections on the carbon tax.” Poilievre is especially critical of Ottawa’s levies related to greenhouse gas emissions. This week, an Abacus Data poll gives his party a 19-point lead. The previous week, another poll by the Ipsos firm showed that 68% of those surveyed want Trudeau to leave office this year.

Several government heavyweights, such as Chrystia Freeland (deputy prime minister) and Jean-Yves Duclos (minister of public services), have publicly reiterated their support for Trudeau, although they have acknowledged that the Liberals must redouble their efforts. Other MPs have also expressed that the prime minister is the right person to continue governing. However, Canadian media, such as the CBC network and the agency The Canadian Press, obtained statements – on condition of anonymity – from some MPs who question Trudeau’s leadership or who comment that it is already too late for such a change because the federal elections are scheduled for the fall of 2025.

On Friday, former Environment Minister Catherine McKenna said the Liberals need a new leader. “The Liberal Party of Canada is not the party of a single person, it is rather the sum of values ​​that drive its desire to improve the lives of Canadians,” said McKenna, a close collaborator of Trudeau between 2015 and 2021. Also the Friday, the CBC network reported that Liberal MP Wayne Long sent a message to the other parliamentarians in his group asking for new leadership “for the good of the country.” The next meeting of liberal deputies is scheduled for September, a few days before parliamentary work resumes. However, various members of the party are asking to bring this appointment forward.

In addition to causing an earthquake among the liberal ranks, the vote in the Toronto-St Paul’s constituency left a curious fact. For the first time in a Canadian federal election, a candidate did not receive any votes. Félix-Antoine Hamel, one of the 84 candidates for deputation, could not even cast a ballot in his favor because he lives in Montreal. Hamel is a member of a committee calling for reform of the Canadian electoral system. One form of protest by this group was to register a legion of candidates: 77 of the 84 who participated in these elections.

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