“God, love and tariffs.” Donald Trump’s three favorite words throughout the campaign, and in recent years hallucinated and amazing Trumpism, seem taken out of the perfect populist manual. They are a vault of the “work, family and homeland” of the thirties: the echoes of Trump fascism are so obvious that they are already studied in Harvard. Its favorite phrase is “common sense”, which European neo -fascists decline. The speech of possession gives for one of those doctoral theses of the myriad of political scientists who explain greatly what has already happened, but that do not finish telling us how it could have been avoided or what comes next (the journalism is happening the same thing the same thing happening the same , but that is another story). The Trump doctrine is already a colossal shaking, a stress test for American democracy, which is another way of saying the international liberal order. One of those moments in which the story tilted and defines. There are a handful of keys to analyze the first steps of the new tenant of the White House, which will mark a generation “launched by destiny to a universal shake as violent as a cataract.” The author of that phrase, Stefan Zweig, did not think of Trump when he wrote it, but in the toxic context of almost a century ago: the temptation of the metaphor, to abuse one of those assonant rhymes that sometimes leaves the story.
–Surprise? Trump is no anomaly: it is the natural consequence of the accumulation of crises and fears of recent times. His first measures are not a surprise either. It has been counting them throughout the campaign. I had carefully sharpened for four years. That bronco tone, which seeks to sow fear and fear, is part of its strategy: so many wars are won without shooting.
–Migration and energy. In the first minute of its presidency, the national emergency in immigration arrived, but we must remember that they deported more people in 2024 than Trump throughout his first term. You can expect a first wave of sound deportations, from military on the Mexican border, of televised raids. But the facts are stubborn: the US needs thousands and thousands of migrants. So it’s time to wait and see if it is up to your bravatas. The second emergency is energetic: Trump promises to “pierce, pierce and pierce” to lower gas and oil prices: inflation and deterioration of purchasing power continue to explain many things in Washington, here and in cochinchine. That price reduction, however, is not usually so automatic, so, again, it is time to wait and see, despite that cataract of belligraine decrees (a part of which they will be lying in court).
–Duty? Not so quick. In that matter that does not even wait and see; You can only expect. There have been no tariff measures among the first battery of decrees. Nothing can go well there, especially for Europe, which has knead a gigantic commercial surplus with the United States. But it is curious that after so many promises and with that volcanic character (”Trump is worthy heir of San Ignacio, soldier and holy at the same time, the worst possible mixture,” says Jorge Volpi) is tempting the clothes because he knows perfectly well that It can shoot in the foot. Its commercial policy will be a constant threat with the aim of obtaining advantages in return. Threat with tariffs to China if you do not sell a Tiktok participation, and will threaten European countries with the unilateral imposition of exports rates unless we do what Trump wants, which is basically that we invest in the US and buy US products. AMERICA First. An example of that transactional policy: Germany alone has a commercial surplus of 65,000 million a year with the US; Trump is going to want Berlin to buy weapons and natural gas to compensate for that figure. A formidable test for European Unity is coming along that flank. The augures are already pressing the trigger of that chronicle of a catastrophe announced that usually dedicate to Europe. But there is an advanced indicator, the Brexit, in which that was foreseen, and the unit is still intact. Europe is usually as patient and resilient as the thesis of the agoreros.
–Amiguetes capitalism. A handful of technoligarcas – the Tecnocastaaccording to the happy definition of the Moncloa scriptwriters with echoes of Podemos -, captained by the histrionic Elon Musk, were on Monday in the front row in the inauguration. That photograph is perhaps the most disturbing of Trumpism: if the important thing is to know who commands, as that character of Alice in WonderlandMusk, Bezos and Company have just left very clear that the king is naked. They are those who have financed their campaign. They are the guardians of the resonance box of alternative events, social networks. And those who are going to litigate with Brussels. In return, Trump is going to leave hands free with artificial intelligence and with the regulation that affects their companies. There will be nothing similar to the idea of chopping those monopolies that was on the table. The gold years of the United States, which Trump likes so much, came after the institutions of that country were able to chop the monopolies against all the pressures. They were other times; Less dystopic, less Orwellians. “Russian oligarch” seemed an unparalleled pleonasm, but an era of “US oligarchs” arrives.
–Multilateral collapse. That imperialist message with Panama, Greenland and others is pure bravery, but the first steps towards the abyss always begin with words. The 1945 multilateral frame collapses in front of our noses: a card castle is still a castle, but it had obvious signs of fatigue. The UN has been unable to be credible to the genocides and invasions of recent times. Breton Woods has been touched on death for years, but IMF’s disavow is a kind of coup de grace. NATO staggers, such as Paris agreements or the World Health Organization. Trump talks about Areas of influencebut in his inaugural speeches he does not end up citing China or Russia. “What seems to be telling Putin and XI is: we share the world, but do not touch my noses,” said Wall Street sources. The struggle with China for becoming the hegemonic power is one of the great keys to the next time. Never, ever, that Sorpasso It has been simple.
That leaves Europe in anyone’s land, with the ultra tide climbing and the German center -right making winks to the ultra meloni. The EU has been appealing to its soft power years and its illustrated values; In turn, he blatantly protected his interests, tightened his immigration policy to shocking extremes and benefited from the US defense, the cheap energy of Russia and the demand of China, a country that continues to do orchestral maneuvers in the dark Human Rights. That recipe – so German – will not survive Trump: Europe has to reinvent himself on the geopolitical board and is poorly equipped; Perhaps its formidable purchase power is your best weapon. “We are like when Varoufakis was a minister in Greece and appealed to alleged European and enlightened values. And that rhetoric is fine, but in view of what happened with Varoufakis, we should be sophisticated enough to understand that either you have a good plan and strength to apply it, or there is nothing to do, ”explains an analyst. That of the boxer Mike Tyson: “Everyone has a plan until you punch in the mouth.”
–How do I know for this? The control of the story by the ultra tide is narcotic, with the networks displaying its toxicities arsenal. The Democrats in the US have failed to placate that tsunami or with full employment and growth of 3%. The ultraconservative wave continues to gain height in Europe, worldwide. Perhaps the only recipe is to wait for mistakes to make mistakes, to stop braking – mal console – as many people believe they did the left in matters of rights, environmental, in everything that has to do with the agenda Wokethat proscribed word. The “that comes the wolf” has only worked in Spain. To turn that stage the first thing is to know what you are playing: this is no longer tennis, not even football, this is rugby. Why is a false story of all falsehood imposed? Because in shock sports you cannot play with a hand tied behind the back. Because social democracy – including the US Democrats – has failed loudly; His elites are getting further from those below even though they say, with a small mouth, that inequality is the greatest challenge of our times. Because Trump has managed to take out the mask and get rid of the atyling discourse of liberal elites and get closer to people’s reality. Because the succession of crisis of recent times leaves an intragiable mixture of anger, uncertainty, fear and fear. And because we have forgotten Esopo. In one of his fables, a horse decides to take revenge on a deer and begins to persecute him; When he sees that he cannot reach it, he asks for help to a hunter, who only accesses if he can embark. With his aid, the horse soon beaten the deer. But when he asks him to release him, the hunter replies: “Not so fast, friend. Now I have taken you by the flange and spurs and I prefer to stay with you as a gift. ” And there is Trump, who seems taken from a cross between that fable and a book of tactics for dictators.
