In the two years after the outbreak of the Arab Spring, it seemed that Islamism could become the hegemonic ideology of the region. In four countries, Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Morocco, Islamist parties rose to power after winning at the polls. In others, such as Jordan or Syria, its influence was also increasing. Its advance seemed so unstoppable that in some media there was talk of a “green tide.” However, the pendulum swung in direction, and a decade later, they had all been removed from power, either by coups d’état or by defeats at the polls, and many of their leaders were in prison or exile. In the midst of crossing the desert, a ray of hope has come from an unexpected place, Syria, where a month ago, a coalition of Islamist militias overthrew the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad in a lightning offensive.
“The fall of Assad opens a new phase in the history of the region. The Syrian revolution is an inspiration for everyone. Islamist movements cannot be marginalized,” comments Mohamed Emad, former deputy of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, from his exile in Türkiye. This movement bore the brunt of the fall from grace of the region’s Islamist parties. After the 2013 coup, the Egyptian army unleashed a cruel repression against members of the brotherhood. Hundreds were killed in protests, and thousands sentenced to long prison terms, including former president Mohamed Morsi.
“The Egypt of [Abdelfatá] Sisi is one of the regimes that has taken the fall of Assad the worst. He sees it as a threat,” says Haizam Amirah Fernández, an analyst at the Elcano Royal Institute specialized in the Arab world. According to the NGO Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, around thirty Syrians living in Egypt were arrested for celebrating the fall of Assad in the streets. In addition, the regime introduced new restrictions on the issuance of visas to Syrian citizens. It took up to three weeks for the Egyptian Foreign Minister, Bader Abdelati, to call his Syrian counterpart.
Among the main reasons for the failure of the Islamist government experience a decade ago are poor economic management, unilateral decision-making instead of seeking consensus, and the obstacles posed by counterrevolutionary forces, supported by several governments in the Persian Gulf, such as those of Riyadh and Abu Dhabi. “Some of the countries hostile to Islam, such as Saudi Arabia, seem to welcome the new Syrian authorities. In the case of the United Arab Emirates, it is not so clear,” reflects Amirah Fernández.
“I don’t know if what is happening in Syria will serve to boost the Islamist parties in the region. Maybe it will improve your image among the population. For now, it is good that it is a positive reference, of victory,” says Sayida Ounisi, former Minister of Labor of Tunisia for Ennahda, the historic Tunisian Islamist party, from Brussels. For that to happen, the transition will have to be successful, not an easy undertaking. The new interim government has inherited an economy in ruins, it lacks control over almost 40% of the territory of a country with great diversity, and it is not clear that its neighbors, led by Israel, or other regional powers, will not interfere with the process.
The new hope of Arab Islam is called Ahmed al Shara, the leader of the Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS) militia and strongman of the new Syria. Al Shara surprised everyone and everyone with its conciliatory attitude once Damascus was taken, reaching an agreement on a transition with Assad’s last prime minister, Ghazi al Jalali. Since then, he has been feted by numerous delegations from foreign countries, and has even received praise from some of his adversaries. “The balance of the first days is positive, which does not mean that I am not worried about Islamism,” comments the writer Yasin Haj Saleh, recently returned from his exile.
Although most Islamists in the region have publicly celebrated the rise of Al Shara, formerly known as Abu Mohamed al Julani, he has not always been a popular figure among them. “Until 2017, HTS was the Syrian affiliate of Al Qaeda, and during its years of rule in Idlib there were many conflicts and combats with other Islamist militias,” explains Orwa Ajjoub, a Syrian researcher specialized in the group. “Al Shara, jihadists see as a traitor, and other less radical currents as an adversary,” adds Ajjoub, who considers that, after years of ideological evolution, HTS can now be defined as an ultra-conservative Islamist movement.
While branches in other countries applaud Al Shara, the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood has a long history of disagreements with HTS, especially some influential clerics close to the brotherhood, such as Mufti Osama al Rifai. According to Ajjoub, Al Shara did not even imagine a month ago that it would control Syria, so he does not believe it has a true roadmap. “Pragmatic and obsessed with power, the policies of your government could resemble those of [Recep Tayyip] Erdogan” in Türkiye, maintains Ajjoub. For years, the Turkish president was the only Islamist leader in power in the region. However, the fact of being Turkish and not Arab limited his capacity for influence in the Islamist sphere of the Middle East.
After decades of totalitarian rule, the Syrian political fabric is unstructured, and the old representatives of the opposition abroad are almost unknown to the average citizen. But at the moment there is no alternative to an Islamist government in sight. Furthermore, Al Shara does not foresee possible free elections within four years, once the country has a new Constitution. Until then, in Syria, Islamism will enjoy a second chance.
