Ukraine’s ‘gamble’ in Kursk

The hottest fighting point

The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said Kursk was the most tense front in the front-line fighting areas during the conflict on January 5, with at least 42 skirmishes. Newspaper The Guardianciting sources, Ukrainian forces have advanced to the settlements of Berdin and Novosotnitskii, after Ukrainian engineers swept mines and electronic warfare forces disabled Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) overnight. A Ukrainian marine soldier who has been fighting in Kursk for many months said that this operation is Ukraine’s largest operation in Kursk since the invasion of this area in early August 2024, when many people participated. elements of naval and paratrooper units, according to Forbes.

Updates from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW, based in the US) mention that Ukraine has carried out attacks in at least three directions in the Kursk region. The Ukrainian army has achieved some tactical successes, but the Russian side also recognized efforts to stop Kyiv’s advance. Ukraine did not provide much information about the operation in Kursk. Chief of Staff of Ukrainian President Andriy Yermak said that “Russia is getting what it deserves in Kursk”. Yesterday, Kyiv announced that it had repelled 47 Russian attacks and Moscow forces organized 8 air strikes on January 5.

In contrast, the Russian Ministry of Defense informed that Ukraine had lost 340 soldiers, 4 tanks and 12 armored vehicles. Kyiv and Moscow did not comment on their opponents’ statements. After information about the situation in Kursk, Russia immediately reacted by sending Mr. Yunus-Bek Yevkurov to Kursk, who is nicknamed “steel general” with a tough stance, and is expected to take command of the Russian army. repelled Ukraine’s attack.

Risky bet?

Current information about Kursk mostly comes from independent observation sources and it is still early to assess the situation after Kyiv’s decision to counterattack. But the outcome of the fighting here will have a significant political impact if Russia and Ukraine can sit at the negotiating table. Yesterday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken emphasized that Ukraine’s posture in Kursk plays an important role in potential future negotiations.

This time, observers believe that Ukraine continues to bet on opening the Kursk front to control parts of Russian territory, similar to August 2024, when Ukraine launched an invasion campaign and surprised Russia. , with the goal of forcing Moscow to disperse its forces. However, after 5 months, Ukrainian forces in Kursk were pushed back one by one and a standoff formed there.

Ukraine is currently under more pressure on many factors. In terms of time, Ukraine needs achievements to bargain, in the context that US President-elect Donald Trump is about to take office, who has repeatedly vowed to pressure Kyiv and Moscow to negotiate, as well as leaving open the possibility possibility of cutting aid to Ukraine. In terms of space, Russia has controlled many important areas in eastern Ukraine compared to 5 months ago and created a buffer zone to focus on operations in Kursk. In addition, it is necessary to consider Ukraine’s resources to recover. The war effort is inferior to Russia, while Moscow is said to be able to increase its manpower with the information of support from North Korean soldiers in Kursk.

Both Russia and Ukraine want to turn the situation in Kursk in their favor. According to the sheet The Telegraph Reported on January 5, the Kursk campaign is considered the last gamble of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the hope that his country’s army can control as much territory as possible, in the context that Kyiv does not have too many options to do so. turn the battlefield. Meanwhile, for Russia, the absence of Ukraine from the territory in Kursk contributed to the decisive outcome of the nearly 3-year war.