Movement at Russian bases in Syria that Moscow used to defend former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad before his escape. The question, still to be clarified, is whether the Kremlin will manage to retain two military facilities in the Arab country that are essential to project its influence in the Middle East and Africa. The transfer of planes at the Russian base and airfield in Khmeimim and the suspension of grain shipments to Damascus have raised suspicions about a possible Russian withdrawal.
Although Russia remains silent while negotiating with the new Syrian authorities, an internal report from the German Ministry of Defense to which the German agency DPA has had access and cited by German media suggests that Moscow is making preparations for a complete abandonment of its bases. Russian ships, he adds, have already left the other base: the Tartús naval base.
Two sun-worn portraits from the coastal province of Latakia — one of Russian President Vladimir Putin and another of former Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad — crown the arch over the army’s military control of the Russian base at Khmeimim. There is no one watching, just a truck crossed at the entrance and several fences to prevent passage. The sentry boxes are empty, as are the soldiers’ posts. Assad’s army vanished a week ago, as shown by the numerous abandoned tanks in the surrounding area.
Another entrance, the main one, only crowned by Putin’s portrait, is being guarded by Russian soldiers. The uniformed men look tense and refuse to answer any question with “grandson [no]” sharp. A fighter lands on the runway, but, in general, the situation is calm; of tense calm. “In the last two or three days there has been a lot of movement at the base, but we don’t know if they are staying or leaving,” explains a neighbor. In the surrounding area there are services, such as supermarkets or hairdressers, for the Russian soldiers stationed there.
In recent days, the Eurasian country has begun to withdraw its military forces deployed in Syria, concentrating them on its coastal bases: the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base. They do so in collaboration with the new rebel authorities and always escorted by convoys from Hayat Tahrir al Sham, the Islamist group that led the victory over the already fallen Damascus regime.
Satellite images taken by the companies Maxar and Planet Labs reveal the presence at the airfield of an Antonov An-124, the largest transport plane in the world, with its nose open for the entry of cargo, as published by the Financial Times. Another aircraft of this type accompanies him on the base runway, along with three other Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft.
The Russian Defense Ministry declines to comment on the total size of its troops in Syria, making it impossible to estimate the extent of the reorganization at its bases. On the Flightradar24 air portal you can track two An-124s, with registration RA-82040 and RA-82037, which have made at least three flights from Syria to Russia in the last week.
In any case, they might not be the only ones if – as has happened in the past – the Russian air forces have chosen to deactivate the transponders of other aircraft. The partial information that appears on these same flights also points in that direction. Flightradar24 shows two consecutive routes of RA-82037 from Russia to Syria, on December 12 and 14, with no return flight between them.
No definitive withdrawal
This volume of aircraft does not fit with a definitive withdrawal either. “When Russian troops deployed to Syria in 2015, they made almost 300 movements in two weeks, and that was before the base was expanded,” Dara Massicot, a researcher at the Carnegie Center, warned on her X account (formerly Twitter ).
In addition to the signs of movement in the Russian bases, there are others. In the aforementioned satellite images you can see how technicians dismantle several helicopters and an S-400 anti-aircraft defense system, the most modern in Russia, at the Khmeimim airfield. Likewise, two frigates, the Admiral Gorshkov and the Admiral Grigorovichhave also left the Tartús naval base.
The Russian war Telegram channels also offer other clues of a withdrawal, at least partial, from Syria. The platform Novorosiya militia reports has released several videos of Russian columns heading to the two bases. “Where are you going?” a man asks a Russian soldier in English. “Home,” he responds with a broad smile.
The future that awaits both bases is still unknown. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov, acknowledged last Wednesday that the Kremlin is negotiating with the rebels after the escape of his protégé Assad. “Of course, we maintain contacts with those who control the situation in Syria,” he said in his daily press conference. “Ensuring the safety of our facilities is of utmost importance.”
That same day, the Bloomberg agency published that Russia had received guarantees that its troops would not be attacked during their withdrawal. However, these promises were only temporary, according to the outlet. The permanence of the Khmeimim airfield and the port of Tartus remains an unknown.
Moscow is silent on the progress of negotiations with the rebels led by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), although some signs suggest that they are not on the right track. Russia has suspended the supply of wheat to Syria, sources from both countries have told the Reuters agency: one transport ship remains anchored off the Syrian coast and another has turned around towards Egypt due to uncertainty over payments and the future Government of the Arab country.
