The Israeli operation Northern Arrows, which began a few weeks ago, has led, as expected, to its ground phase. From there, several reference points can be established to follow what happens on the ground.
● It is not an answer to anything or anyone, but one more step in a plan designed by the government led by Benjamin Netanyahu to finish a task that they have imposed on themselves as a result of their messianic ideology. Although the warmongering dynamic that dominates the regional agenda leads them to pretend that they are acting in defense of the Palestinian cause (which is not that of Hamas either), both Hezbollah and Iran have given ample evidence that they do not wish to escalate the conflict for fear of suffering a unbearable punishment. Netanyahu has not even waited for Tehran to respond after the assassination of Ismail Haniya or for Hezbollah to do the same for Hasan Nasrallah; The prolongation and expansion of the conflict serves their strategy to remain in power. And the surge in popularity that the aforementioned operation provides could well lead him to bring forward elections to confirm his leadership (and continue escaping justice).
● It is a full-fledged invasion and, therefore, one more violation of international law. A violation that portrays both the Lebanese government—ordering the withdrawal of its troops to avoid clashing with the invading forces (what use is its army then?)—and Tel Aviv’s contempt for rules that it has been violating with impunity for decades. Netanyahu and his people know that even then they will not stop counting on American support, as demonstrated by the approval of another 8.7 billion in military aid and their military support in the area, not to protect the Gazans or the Lebanese, but to block the Lebanese ports, preventing the militia from receiving support, and to neutralize the missiles launched in the direction of Israel.
● It is presented as a “limited military operation”, inevitably recalling the “special military operation” launched by Putin in Ukraine. A formulation that contrasts with the reality of Gaza, where an exit strategy is not in sight one year after the start of the massacre. An argument that was already used in 1982, when Israeli troops entered Lebanon, starting an occupation that lasted until 2000. No matter how much its military superiority is and no matter how affected the Shiite militia was after the last blows, the annihilation of Hezbollah It is out of your reach. The plans managed by Tel Aviv consider that the operation will be a success if it manages to kill some 3,000 combatants and leave behind another 12,000 wounded, while its own casualties would be in the range of 800 soldiers. It remains to be seen what Hezbollah’s plans are.
● Netanyahu seeks to create a new regional order to his liking, taking advantage of the international situation – with Washington in the midst of an electoral campaign, Brussels fragmented and Arab governments as impotent as usual – to redraw the map of the Middle East. He dreams of achieving total domination of historic Palestine, —promoting the death and flight of Palestinians— redrawing the map of Lebanon, —with a high probability that he will decide to reoccupy the south of the country—neutralizing the Syrian regime, —the The attempted assassination of Maher al-Assad is a clear signal, while he counts that the Golan Heights are definitively his—and prevents Iran from continuing to constitute a threat to his security, whether with access to nuclear weapons or by managing his various regional pawns.
Who is going to stop it?
