American voters already saw their president, Joe Biden, as too old. However, his poor performance in last Thursday’s debate against Donald Trump, in which he made lapses and left sentences incomplete, has accentuated that impression. While the president’s family, and especially the first lady, Jill Biden, support him and Biden looks for ways to control the damage, a survey published this Sunday photographs the mood of public opinion. 72% of voters believe that he should not run for re-election, but the majority of Democrats want him to remain in the race.
The poll was conducted by YouGov on behalf of CBS. It found that 72% of voters believe Biden does not have the mental and cognitive health to serve as president. That same percentage think the president should not run for re-election, an increase of nine points from the previous YouGov poll conducted in February. Fieldwork for the new poll was conducted in the two days following the CNN debate in Atlanta, with memories of Biden’s poor showing that night fresh in the minds of voters.
When those who say Biden should not run are asked why, 86% point to his age, 71% to the decisions he could make in office, 66% to his record as president, and 56% doubt his ability to run. campaign effectively.
The Democratic nominee is chosen indirectly by the Democratic base, voting in the primaries for delegates who will announce the candidate at the convention. Biden easily secured the vast majority of the delegates who will meet in Chicago from August 19 to 22. After the debate, questions have arisen about whether he is the best option available to the Democratic Party to face Donald Trump. The CBS/YouGov poll shows that 55% of Democrats believe that Biden should be the nominee and 45% believe that he should step aside.
Trump won the debate
The poll also finds that Trump presented his ideas more clearly, appeared more presidential, inspired more confidence and explained his policies better in the CNN-produced debate in Atlanta. Despite Trump’s bombardment of hoaxes, the difference between those who believe that Biden told the truth (40%) and that Trump did (32%) is not that big either.
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From the first poll conducted by CNN to all those that have come after, there is unanimity that Trump won the debate. The Democratic hope is that this will not have too much of an impact on voters and that little by little Trump’s lies, his defense of those who stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021, and the former president’s xenophobic messages will serve to mobilize progressive voters.
“I understand the concern after the debate,” Biden said Saturday at a fundraiser in Red Bank, New Jersey. “I get it. I didn’t have a great night. But I’m going to fight harder, and I need you with me to get there. And here’s what we’re hearing: Voters had a very different reaction than the pundits if you look at the polling data. Since the debate, the polls show little movement and have even pushed me up a couple of points since the debate,” he said. “The research during the debate shows us converting more undecided voters than Trump, largely due to his conduct on January 6, as well as fighting for the working class, which he doesn’t. In fact, the most important thing is Trump’s lies.”
Associated Press/LaPresse (APN)
Biden’s thesis is that although things went very badly for him, Trump did not have a great night either and that when voters consider choosing between the two, they lean toward him and not the Republican. “They mock me for saying, ‘Do not compare me with the Almighty; Compare me with the alternative.’ Well, that’s not a difficult fight. “It is not a hard fight,” he said at another event on Saturday, as part of a fundraising tour he had planned to take advantage of the debate and which he had to use to try to calm the concerns of donors.
On Saturday night he returned to Camp David with his family and there was speculation that he would privately talk to his loved ones about the possibility of retiring. For now, however, he has received the full support of the first lady, Jill Biden, and also of the apparatus and the main personalities of the Democratic Party, who have closed ranks with the candidate.
Independent polls do not show for now that effect that Biden points out, but rather the opposite. On the FiveThirtyEight aggregator, Trump has regained all the lead he had lost since he was convicted of 34 crimes in late May. Biden had managed to get ahead in national voting intentions, but this Sunday he is already 1.3 points behind. Obviously, it is difficult to know what the direct effect of the debate is, but the signs are clear. And, although it may seem like a small impact, in such a close election, which will be decided by a narrow margin in six key states (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada), a move of more than one point could decide the presidency .
FiveThirtyEight also commissioned Ipsos to conduct its own poll on the debate, which also found that Trump won by a large majority. That poll also reflects a loss of support for Biden, but it must be interpreted with caution because it does not measure voting intention, but rather which candidates citizens consider voting for, and may include more than one in their response. Before the debate, 48.2% were considering voting for Biden and after it, 46.7%. This is a loss of 1.5 points using this criterion. Trump is moving forward and increasing his potential voters to 43.9% and Robert F Kennedy is going from 17.3% to 18.4%, but note that the total is over 100% because it is not a poll of voting intention.
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